Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
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Bank of Japan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)
The odds
77%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps77%▲ 6
- Maintain current rate22%▼ 4
- Cut 25bps1%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Hike 25bps: 67% on Oct 6, 77% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 5, 12 AM ETHike 25bps: 84% → 91%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 29, 12 AM ETHike 25bps: 74% → 81%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 77% | ▲ 6 | 77¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 10.1K |
| Maintain current rate | 22% | ▼ 4 | 22¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 10.2K |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 255 | ||
| Hike more than 25bps | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 358 | ||
| Cut more than 25bps | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | 255 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Bank of Japan
Search ›- Bank of Japan Set to Raise Rates to 1.50% in December as Fed Flies BlindEconomists polled by Reuters overwhelmingly expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate again this quarter. The Federal Reserve, grappling with a damaged economic data record from two shutdowns, has no such clarity heading into…
- Yen gains against US dollar after Bank of Japan holds rates[NEW YORK/LONDON] The yen was on track for a third consecutive daily gain on Friday (Oct 30) after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left rates unchanged and upgraded its inflation outlook, while declining US Treasury yields weighed on the…
- Bank of Japan accelerates ETF sales. Does this affect NISA?Hearing that the Bank of Japan is accelerating its ETF sales may have made some people concerned about their NISA investments. On October 30, 2026, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy interest rate at around 1.25%, while…
- Japanese Yen futures pare gains as Bank of Japan holds rates.CME Group Market Data on Google Analytics Hub THE SOURCE FOR HISTORICAL DATA Dive into the Subscription Center The world's most valuable exchange brand Turn curiosity into confidence Elevate your trading skills Stay on top of the latest…
- Reading Financial News in Manga: The Bank of Japan is Selling ETFs! Is My Japanese Stock Portfolio Safe?On October 30, 2026, the Bank of Japan decided to increase the pace of its ETF sales. From January 2027, the pace will increase from approximately 330 billion yen to 860 billion yen per year in book value. Book value is the original amount…
- Bank of Japan Hits 2% Price TargetIn a big day for monetary policy in Japan, the Bank of Japan finally announced it had hit its 2% price target - a target set in 2013. - In a big day for monetary policy in Japan, the Bank of Japan finally announced it had hit its 2% price…
- Inflation is at 2% but interest rates remain at 1.25%. Why the Bank of Japan held off on a rate hike in OctoberOn October 30, the Bank of Japan announced that the momentum of prices has become "broadly consistent" with its 2% target. Even so, the policy interest rate remains at 1.25% and has not been raised. If the target has been reached, why not…
- [Bank of Japan keeps interest rates on hold] What happens next? What should we do?On October 30, the Bank of Japan kept its policy interest rate at around 1.25%. This decision maintains the rate at the level it was raised to in September. (Bank of Japan published materials) “Does that mean mortgage rates will be safe…
- The Bank of Japan keeps interest rates at 1.25%. Here are 3 things I, as a homeowner with a variable-rate mortgage, will check in NovemberNo rate hike this time Seeing the Bank of Japan news on October 30th, I, as someone with a variable-rate mortgage, felt a little relieved. I bought a house with a variable-rate mortgage in 2026. With a two-year-old child, I will need money…
- The Fact That the 10,000 Yen Note in Your Wallet Is a Promissory Note from the Bank of JapanThe statement that a 10,000 yen note is a "promissory note (liability)" of the Bank of Japan and that the holder is "lending 10,000 yen to the Bank of Japan" is a fact as an accounting and institutional mechanism. In the financial…
- JPY/VND Forecast After the Bank of Japan Interest Rate DecisionThe JPY/VND exchange rate wavered today after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) delivered its interest rate decision. It was trading at 163.67 on Friday, down by 3.4% from its highest point in September this year. This downward trend may continue…
- Bank of Japan Holds Rate at 1.25% as Underlying Inflation Meets 2% GoalEight of Nine Board Members Back Hold in What Analysts Call a Hawkish Pause Underlying Inflation Hits 2% Target Set in 2013, a Long-Sought Goal of Abenomics Higher Oil Prices and a Weak Yen Drive Japan to the Target This Year BOJ Speeds Up…
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Bank of Canada Decision in December?
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
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Bank of Russia decision in December?
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions