New Zealand rate decision in December (Dec 8, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 8 · $5 today · $3.4K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 56 min ago

The odds

75%Hike 1-25bps

Hike 1-25bps75%▲ 14
Maintain current rate22%▼ 12
Cut 1-25bps2%▲ 1
Hike more than 25bps2%
Cut more than 25bps1%

How the odds have moved

Hike 1-25bps: 55% on Oct 28, 75% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 9, 10 PM ETHike 1-25bps: 60% → 75%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Nov 6, 12 AM ETHike 1-25bps: 67% → 58%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 29, 12 AM ETHike 1-25bps: 55% → 71%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Hike 1-25bps	75%	▲ 14	71¢	78¢	$1.28	4.3K
Maintain current rate	22%	▼ 12	19¢	25¢	$4.00	212
Cut 1-25bps	2%	▲ 1	1¢	2¢	$50.00	2.8K
Hike more than 25bps	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	404
Cut more than 25bps	1%			1¢	$100.00	2.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New Zealand

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After knife-edge vote, New Zealand parties put off coalitions talksBBC News · 23 h agoWho will form New Zealand's next government remains uncertain after the country's national election on Saturday, with final results not due for another couple of weeks. It's the tightest vote that the country has seen in years, with the…
Scotland 21-43 New Zealand: Three things we learnedYahoo Sports · 45 h agoScotland's defence needs work Law changes in rugby union have favoured attacking teams, whether it's advantages for driving mauls or how the breakdown is refereed, and Test matches have more points now. Nonetheless, Scotland are leaking…
No clear winner in New Zealand election, as leaders prepare for weeks of talksNPR · 35 h agoNew Zealand Prime Minister and National Party leader, Christopher Luxon addresses party faithful in Auckland, New Zealand, Saturday, Nov.7, 2026. Alex Robertson/AP hide caption WELLINGTON, New Zealand — New Zealanders will wait for weeks…
New Zealand’s Opportunity party takes aim at populist politics on historic first day in parliamentthe Guardian · 25 h agoMinor party leader Qiulae Wong says ‘populism doesn’t deliver results’ and that her vision for a low emissions future will drive its talks with major parties A history-making centrist party that could decide the fate of New Zealand’s next…
Seven-try New Zealand too strong for ScotlandBBC Sport · 2 days agoRuthless New Zealand blew Scotland away in a high-class, seven tries to three Nations Championship victory at Murrayfield. Read the match report. Seven-try New Zealand too strong for Scotland. Video, 00:03:02Seven-try New Zealand too…
Can New Zealand's new government win over disillusioned voters?BBC News · 2 days agoNew Zealand election 'too close to call' - so who's won? New Zealand voted in a new government as fog choked the capital, Wellington, on Saturday - and the mood was as palpable as the grey weather. "It's pretty flat," 21-year-old Imogen…
New Zealand cruise to victory as Scotland fadeBBC Sport · 2 days agoEwan Ashman scored a first-half hat-trick for Scotland but New Zealand controlled the game after the interval Tries: Ashman 3 Cons: Russell 3 Pens: New Zealand (24) ? Tries: Sititi, De Groot, Taylor, Barrett 2, Moorby, Aumua Cons: McKenzie…
No clear winner after tight New Zealand general electionBBC News · 3 days agoThere was no clear winner following New Zealand's election on Saturday, as the leaders of its two major parties preparing for negotiations to form a coalition government. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's centre-right National Party won…
Ponga-inspired New Zealand reach World Cup finalBBC Sport · 3 days agoKalyn Ponga featured with a protective arm guard for New Zealand New Zealand (12) 34 Tries: Nikora, Gagai, McLean, Hughes, Willison, Nicoll-Klokstad Goals: Isaako 5 Tries: Fifita 2 Goals: Katoa Just 23 days after breaking his arm, Kalyn…
New Zealand Election Too Close to Call as Center-Right Bloc Holds EdgeNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 12:13 PM EST New Zealand’s election remained too close to call Saturday after preliminary results gave Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s center-right coalition a razor-thin, one-seat parliamentary majority, even as the…
New Zealand beat Tonga to reach World Cup finalBBC Sport · 3 days agoKalyn Ponga returns to inspire New Zealand to a 34-10 victory in a pulsating encounter with Tonga as they reach their first World Cup final since 2013. MATCH REPORT: Ponga-inspired New Zealand reach World Cup final New Zealand beat Tonga…
New Zealand’s two major parties are flatlining as dispirited voters seek transformational changethe Guardian · 2 days agoVoters sent National and Labour a clear message last night – and the parties have no one to blame but themselves New Zealand faces weeks of uncertainty with election ‘too close to call’ New Zealand voters sent the two major parties a clear…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onReserve Bank of New Zealand, Trading Economics

Trading closesDec 8, 2026 8:59 PM ET

Traded$3.4K (9,780 contracts)

Today$5

This week$802

At stake$1.5K

In the news245 headlines today, 1,312 this week

Followed here sinceOct 27, 2026

The rules

If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its December Monetary Policy Review meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions