Bank of Israel rate decision in November (Nov 23, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Nov 23 · $38 today · $2K traded · $600 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

89%Maintain current rate

Maintain current rate89%
Cut 1-25bps8%▲ 2
Hike 1-25bps1%
Hike more than 25bps1%
Cut more than 25bps1%

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 70% on Oct 22, 89% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 4, 12 AM ETMaintain current rate: 80% → 87%
- Israeli Navy conducts drill exercise near Gaza border, IDF announcesNew York Post · 7 days ago
- Israel’s election commission rejects Netanyahu claims of voting fraudthe Guardian · 6 days ago
- Netanyahu faces coalition showdown as rivals maneuver to form Israel's next governmentFox News · 6 days ago
Nov 1, 11 PM ETMaintain current rate: 56% → 85%
- Israeli strikes in Gaza kill eight including child, hospitals sayBBC News · 9 days ago
- Israel Palestinians GazaThe Herald Journal · 9 days ago
- APTOPIX Israel Palestinians GazaWV News · 8 days ago
Oct 27, 12 AM ETMaintain current rate: 78% → 56%
- Bank of Israel rebukes Netanyahu over sanction evading crypto planCentral Banking · 14 days ago
- Bank of Israel head estimates war in Gaza will cost Israel $67 billionAll Israel News · 20 days ago
- Netanyahu trails in polls ahead of first Israeli election since start of Gaza warCBS News · 15 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Maintain current rate	89%		88¢	92¢	$1.09	497
Cut 1-25bps	8%	▲ 2	5¢	11¢	$9.09	18.1K
Hike 1-25bps	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	2.4K
Hike more than 25bps	1%			2¢	$50.00	8.3K
Cut more than 25bps	1%			1¢	$100.00	3.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu

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The Israeli elections prove Netanyahu’s political prowessWashington Examiner · 4 days agoWashington Examiner Those banking on a loss for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in last week’s elections were sorely mistaken. Although neither his bloc nor the opposition has a straightforward path to forming the next…
US midterm results may help unite Israeli coalition to unseat Netanyahuthe Guardian · 3 days agoDemocrats’ sweep could urge Israel’s divided opposition to join forces and remove prime minister closely allied with Trump But as Israel took stock of the results, there was also a sense that the elections marked a longer-term shift in US…
Arab grouping backs Netanyahu challenger for next Israeli governmentsemafor.com · 4 days agoIsrael’s largest Arab party grouping declared its support Thursday for Gadi Eisenkot to form the next government. Israelâs largest Arab party grouping declared its support Thursday for Gadi Eisenkot to form the next government…
‘West Bank is Israel’s weak point’: US sanctions pressure grows ahead of Israeli electionNewsCord · 7 days agoYnet News (English), on West Bank, 2 October 2026 out of 10, scored on 5 of 11 checks. Few checks applied, so read it with that in mind. Select an underlined passage to see the reasoning. A check counts only when the article gives it…
Israel’s Arab parties choose between ‘bad and even worse’ as they back Gadi Eisenkot over Netanyahu to form governmentWashington Examiner · 4 days agoIsrael's Arab parties choose between 'bad and even worse' Washington Examiner The ethnic Arab parties of Israel have thrown their support behind Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot, cementing his case to form a government over that of…
Israel Palestinians GazaDaily News-Record · 4 days agoDaily News-Record Palestinian fishermen tend to their nets beside boats pulled ashore at the port in Gaza City, Friday, Nov. 6, 2026. An unscientific take on an issue in the news. What time of year do you look forward to most? Find the…
Israeli fire kills five in GazaThe Daily Star · 3 days agoIsraeli strikes and gunfire on Thursday killed five people across Gaza, including a woman and a 12-year-old boy, rescue services in the war-ravaged Palestinian territory told AFP. Copyright: Any unauthorized use or reproduction of The…
Gaza turns discarded cooking pots into seawallsAl Jazeera · 4 days agoAl Jazeera Gaza turns discarded cooking pots into seawalls As winter approaches, aid groups in Gaza are turning damaged cooking pots into makeshift seawalls to protect shelters and schools from flooding. Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum…
Netanyahu faces coalition showdown as rivals maneuver to form Israel's next governmentFox News · 6 days agoFox News senior White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich joins ‘America Reports’ to report on President Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will halt aid to Israel at the end of the year and his closing push as midterm voting gets…
Israeli forces kill 15-year-old boy in GazaMiddle East Eye · 3 days agoMiddle East Eye Israeli forces kill 15-year-old boy in Gaza Israeli forces killed a 15-year-old Palestinian boy in al-Mawasi, west of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, on Friday, the Palestinian news agency Wafa reported. Mohammed Nidal…
APTOPIX Israel Palestinians GazaBluefield Daily Telegraph · 5 days agoBluefield Daily Telegraph Palestinian Civil Defense crews attempt to extinguish a burning car struck by an Israeli military strike in Gaza City Monday, Nov. 2, 2026. - What to know after Israel's election results give neither Netanyahu nor…
Two Palestinians Martyred in Israeli Airstrikes on GazaMENA · 3 days agoJordan News Two Palestinians Martyred in Israeli Airstrikes on Gaza

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onBank of Israel, Trading Economics

Trading closesNov 23, 2026 9:59 AM ET

Traded$2K (32,595 contracts)

Today$38

At stake$600

In the news852 headlines today, 4,953 this week

Followed here sinceOct 21, 2026

The rules

If the Bank of Israel takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its November Monetary Committee meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions