Poland rate decision in December (Dec 2, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 2 · $16 today · $172 traded · $166 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

72%Maintain current rate

Maintain current rate72%
Hike 1-25bps20%▼ 1
Cut 1-25bps3%
Cut more than 25bps3%
Hike more than 25bps3%

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 81% on Oct 31, 72% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Maintain current rate	72%		8¢	71¢	$1.41	98.00
Hike 1-25bps	20%	▼ 1	16¢	24¢	$4.17	500
Cut 1-25bps	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00
Cut more than 25bps	3%			5¢	$20.00	50.00
Hike more than 25bps	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	1.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Poland

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BREAKING: 5 dead, 12 injured in Poland shootingFox News · 2 days agoFox News correspondent Stephanie Bennett joins ‘Fox News Live’ to report on the deadly shooting in Krakow, Poland, where a gunman opened fire on people in the city’s Main Square before exchanging gunfire with police. BREAKING: 5 dead, 12…
Five people killed, multiple injured in Poland market shootingNBC News · 2 days agoBREAKING: At least five people are dead and a dozen injured in a shooting at a market in Krakow, Poland Authorities in Poland are investigating a shooting that left five people dead and at least a dozen injured in the Main Market Square in…
Mass shooting in Poland leaves 5 dead, at least 12 injuredFox News · 2 days agoA shooter opened fire at a busy market square in Krakow, Poland on November 7, 2026 leaving five dead and at least 12 injured. Mass shooting in Poland leaves 5 dead, at least 12 injured A shooter opened fire at a busy market square in…
Poland Shooting: 5 Dead After Gunman Opens Fire in Kraków Tourist SquareNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 11:33 AM EST Nov 07, 2026 at 12:04 PM EST Five people were killed and at least 12 injured after a gunman opened fire from a car in Kraków’s Main Market Square on Saturday, Polish authorities said. The shooting began at…
Mass shooting in Krakow, Poland market leaves at least 6 dead, 15 injuredCBS News · 2 days agoUpdated on: November 7, 2026 / 1:51 PM CST / CBS News A man drove into an open market in the Polish city of Krakow and opened fire from his car, killing at least six people and injuring at least 15 others, authorities said. The shooter was…
Mass shooting in Krakow, Poland market leaves at least 5 dead, a dozen injuredCBS News · 2 days agoNovember 7, 2026 / 10:53 AM EST / CBS News A man drove into an open market in the Polish city of Krakow and opened fire from his car, killing at least five people and injuring about a dozen others, police said. The shooter was shot by…
Mass shooting in Krakow, Poland market leaves at least 6 dead, 15 injured; 3 more found dead in suspect's homeCBS News · 2 days agoUpdated on: November 7, 2026 / 4:24 PM EST / CBS News A man drove into an open market in the Polish city of Krakow and opened fire from his car, killing at least six people and injuring at least 15 others, authorities said. Another three…
Poland detains 6 suspects working for Russian intelligence, Polish official saysThe Kyiv Independent · 5 days agoPoland's Internal Security Agency (ABW) detained six people suspected of working for Russian special services, Tomasz Siemoniak, Poland's minister-coordinator of special services, said on Nov. 5. "The group illegally supplied Russia with…
"poland-news"Telangana Today · 3 days agoGet Poland news News on Telangana Today, Poland news latest news, Poland news news, | Telangana Today ...
Poland Simmering Awayhotair.com · 3 days agoThe standoff between populist Polish president Karol Nawrocki and the European Union creature at heart, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has been heating up ever so slowly over the course of the week, as both sides claim the rightful…
Poland Data Centers ProtestsGoshen News · 3 days agoGoshen News Protesters hold signs reading "What is the true COST of this investment?â, âLetâs not let the world drown in AI slop!â and âWater consumption: 1 data centre = 3,000 people. And they tell US to save water?!â during a…
I'm betting on PolandAdam Smith Institute · 4 days agoIt shows good growth achieved by sensible policies and a willingness to work. It is rising faster than most competitors, and will likely soon overtake many of them, including ourselves, in living standards. Poland is a strong bet. Few…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNarodowy Bank Polski, Trading Economics

Trading closesDec 2, 2026 8:59 AM ET

Traded$172 (649 contracts)

Today$16

This week$172

At stake$166

Followed here sinceOct 30, 2026

The rules

If the Narodowy Bank Polski takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its December Monetary Policy Council meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions