Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
>99%chance▲ 53
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South Africa rate decision in November (Nov 19, 2026 meeting)
The odds
83%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate83%▲ 27
- Hike 1-25bps17%
- Hike more than 25bps10%
- Cut 1-25bps1%
- Cut more than 25bps<1%
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 53% on Oct 19, 83% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 28, 10 PM ETMaintain current rate: 53% → 36%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 83% | ▲ 27 | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 227 |
| Hike 1-25bps | 17% | 4¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 9.8K | |
| Hike more than 25bps | 10% | 3¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 1.3K | |
| Cut 1-25bps | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 50.9K | ||
| Cut more than 25bps | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 15.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: South Africa
Search ›- South Africa’s Shoprite plans banking move with InvestecAfrica’s biggest grocer Shoprite plans to team up with upmarket lender Investec to offer customers a debit card and expanded financial services, as competition in South Africa’s banking sector heats up. The strategy takes Shoprite into an…
- South African voters punish ANC with worst-ever resultThe African National Congress suffered its worst-ever result in local elections, potentially shifting the balance of power in South Africa’s coalition government. African sovereigns are flooding back into global debt markets, accepting…
- Nine foreigners caught allegedly trying to leave South Africa to fight in UkraineNine foreigners have been arrested in South Africa after they were caught allegedly trying to leave the country to fight in the war between Russia and the Ukraine, police say. The group, aged between 20 and 26, were arrested in and around…
- Uncapped Notts spinner Patterson-White earns England Test call-up for South AfricaLiam Patterson-White has been selected for England’s three Test tour of South Africa ahead of Shoaib Bashir ... Uncapped Notts spinner Patterson-White earns England Test call-up for South Africa 28-year-old rewarded for county performances…
- Nelson Mandela’s ANC party hits new low in South Africa’s local electionsMorning Rundown: Tech titan targeted by alleged Chinese spy, tension in Philadelphia over boycott of Jewish businesses, and Congress returns with big to-do list South Africa’s African National Congress party was handed its worst election…
- The legacy of South Africa’s first Black showjumper and his horse-riding school in Soweto – photo essayEnos Mafokate began his career as a stable hand and went on to become a world-class athlete during the apartheid era. In September 2026, aged 80, Enos died in Johannesburg – but his legacy endures through his horse-riding school and the…
- 'Devastating message' as ANC records worst-ever result in South Africa electionSouth Africa's ANC has recorded its worst-ever showing in local elections since Nelson Mandela led the country out of apartheid and into democracy more than 30 years ago, a result the party has called "catastrophic". While it won the most…
- Elon Musk Is Portrayed on ‘SNL’: “The Worst Thing South Africa Has Ever Done”The portrayal calls him 'the worst thing South Africa has ever done' as Colin Jost grills him about election losses. Jeremy Culhane plays the character in the show’s latest attempt to assess its relationship with the mogul.
- SNL has a new impression of Elon Musk, ‘the worst thing South Africa has ever done’Saturday Night Live cast member Jeremy Culhane unveiled his impression of Elon Musk last night, depicting the SpaceX and Tesla CEO as an awkward loser who fumbles his attempt to befriend the hosts of Weekend Update. This isn’t the first…
- Rodrigues back from injury, Shreyanka dropped from T20Is for South AfricaIndia batter Jemimah Rodrigues has recovered from the hamstring injury she picked up in the UK during the Hundred and has been named in the three squads for the all-format tour of South Africa next ...
- Patterson-White wins maiden England call in Test squad for South AfricaEngland have handed Nottinghamshire's Liam Patterson-White his maiden Test call-up for the forthcoming tour of South Africa. The allrounder, who bowls left-arm spin, is part of new head coach Stephen ...
- Injury blow for Bangladesh! Shadman Islam ruled out of South Africa series after Sylhet Test setbackBangladesh is set to face a challenge in the upcoming Test series in South Africa as opener Shadman Islam has been ruled out due to a serious ankle injury sustained during the Sylhet Test, possibly involving a tear and fracture. In his…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions