Sweden rate decision in December (Dec 16, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 16 · $654 traded · $574 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

72%Maintain current rate

Maintain current rate72%
Hike 1-25bps20%
Cut more than 25bps2%
Cut 1-25bps2%
Hike more than 25bps2%

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 54% on Oct 31, 72% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Maintain current rate	72%	63¢	91¢	$1.10	625
Hike 1-25bps	20%	1¢	33¢	$3.03	1.0K
Cut more than 25bps	2%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	4.00
Cut 1-25bps	2%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	4.00
Hike more than 25bps	2%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	4.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Sweden

Search ›

Sweden’s Göteborg Film Festival to Debate the Fascination With Youth in a ‘Forever Young’ FocusVariety · 4 days agoThe festival’s first programming news for next year’s edition comes as Göteborg has also announced that Josef Kullengård will step down from his role as Head of industry after this year’s edition Joshua Oppenheimer’s “The Revolution…
Latvia and Sweden School Lunch Systems ComparedBIOENGINEER.ORG · 2 days agoA new cross-sectional comparative study evaluated school lunch provision in Rezekne, Latvia, and Uppsala, Sweden, using a newly developed multidimensional evaluation index. Latvia and Sweden School Lunch Systems Compared Subject of…
Sweden: October inflation reviewFXStreet · 4 days agoSwedish inflation surprised on the downside in October, with CPI at 0.91% y/y versus our forecast of 1.17%, CPIF at 1.13% versus 1.39%, and CPIF excluding energy at 0.11% versus 0.47%. Monthly changes were 0.02%, 0.02% and −0.15%…
Sweden's Cantargia Names Chief Medical OfficerMarketScreener · 3 days agoSwedish biotechnology company Cantargia appointed Monic Stuart as chief medical officer. Stuart's appointment took effect on Monday, according to a same-day release. ... Biotechnology & Medical Research Sweden's Cantargia Names Chief…
Swedish Vet Confirms Brucella Canis in Imported Romanian DogBIOENGINEER.ORG · 2 days agoThis case report serves as a reminder of the ongoing challenges in veterinary medicine related to the importation of animals from endemic regions. The complexity of canine brucellosis, including its diverse clinical manifestations and the…
Rockford native featured in Swedish television series@WIFRTV · 3 days agoROCKFORD, Ill. (Rockford News First) - A Rockford native is one of eight Americans learning more about their heritage in a Swedish television series. Tracy Sjostrom is an ancestor of Richard Sjostrom who immigrated to Rockford in 1914 and…
Swedish Evangelical Alliance marks 25 years of gospel witnessChDaily_News · 2 days agoThe Swedish Evangelical Alliance recently marked its 25th anniversary. Its leader says the alliance will keep bearing biblical witness to Christ as so-called progressive theology spreads, including in many of the country’s free churches…
Swedish Study Links ADHD Diagnosis Gaps to School GradesBIOENGINEER.ORG · 2 days agoBy identifying the role of academic achievement in shaping these differences, the research offers a nuanced perspective on the disparities in ADHD diagnosis. It calls for a more comprehensive approach to understanding and addressing these…
Saab receives order to equip Sweden’s new frigatesNaval News · 3 days agoHome » Saab receives order to equip Sweden’s new frigates On November 6, 2026, Saab announced that it had signed a contract with Naval Group to equip the FDI frigates ordered by the Swedish Navy. Saab has signed a contract with the French…
Pam Svane Awarded Swedish Sports Federation Elite Sports ScholarshipEurodressage · 3 days agoSwedish para team rider Pam Svane has been awarded the Swedish Sports Federation elite sports scholarship. She is one of 60 athletes to receive the scholarship for 2026-2027. Vaulter Olivia Neilands is the only other "equestrian" to also…
Swedish Short-Listed Pairs for 2026 World Championships AnnouncedEurodressage · 3 days agoThe Swedish equestrian federation has announced the short-listed pairs for team selection for the 2026 World Championships in Aachen on 11 - 15 August 2026. Sweden has not yet named the actual team, but the seven riders who have been…
Women's Worlds: Canada 5, Sweden 1TSN · 3 days agoTSN Women's Worlds: Canada 5, Sweden 1 Jessie Eldridge scored twice and added an assist, Kendall Cooper had a goal and an assist, and Ann-Renée Desbiens made 13 saves as Canada beat Sweden to win its opening game of the Women's World…

Related markets

All central banks ›

Economy › Central banks

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

>99%chance▲ 53

Economy › Central banks

Bank of England decision in December?

58%No change

No change58%
25 bps increase42%▲ 4
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

89%No Change

No Change89%▲ 1
25 bps decrease7%▲ 1
50+ bps decrease2%

2 more

25 bps increase1%
50+ bps increase1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

70%No Change

No Change70%▼ 4
25 bps increase30%▲ 5
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › Central banks

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

76%25 bps increase

25 bps increase76%▲ 10
No change21%▼ 13
50+ bps increase1%▼ 2

2 more

25 bps decrease<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Russia decision in December?

82%No change

No change82%▲ 3
25 bps decrease14%▼ 1
25 bps increase3%▼ 1

2 more

50+ bps increase1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onSveriges Riksbank, Trading Economics

Trading closesDec 16, 2026 3:29 AM ET

Traded$654 (1,658 contracts)

This week$654

At stake$574

In the news50 headlines today, 359 this week

Followed here sinceOct 30, 2026

The rules

If Sveriges Riksbank takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its December monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions