Taiwan rate decision in December (Dec 17, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 17 · $40 traded · $40 at stake · prices read 8 h ago

The odds

67%Maintain current rate

Maintain current rate67%
Hike 1-12.5bps21%▼ 1
Cut 1-12.5bps4%▼ 1
Hike more than 12.5bps4%▼ 1
Cut more than 12.5bps3%

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 58% on Oct 19, 67% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Maintain current rate	67%		66¢	74¢	$1.35	57.00
Hike 1-12.5bps	21%	▼ 1	18¢	27¢	$3.70
Cut 1-12.5bps	4%	▼ 1	2¢	7¢	$14.29
Hike more than 12.5bps	4%	▼ 1	2¢	7¢	$14.29
Cut more than 12.5bps	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.67

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan

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Taiwan detains a Communist Party leader over alleged Chinese sponsorship in electionThe Washington Post · 42 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Authorities in Taiwan…
Asian chip stocks in South Korea and Taiwan gain despite Nvidia scrutinyCNBC · 22 h agoAsian tech heavyweights rose across the region on Monday, rebounding from Friday's losses and in the midst of Nvidia's probe into CEO Jensen Huang. Taiwan's markets led the rally in Asian markets, with the Taiwan Weighted Index up as much…
China to resume Taiwan tour groups amid blame gameRadio Free Asia · 21 h agoTAIPEI, Taiwan – China announced on Friday a plan to resume group tours to Taiwan after it criticized the island over what it called its inaction in normalizing cross-strait interactions. Tourism between China, which claims self-ruled…
Taiwan and South Korea Join Forces on Musical Theater Co-ProductionsVariety · 24 h agoThe Taiwan Creative Content Agency (TAICCA) and the Korean Association of Musical Producers (KAMP) signed a memorandum of understanding at the Taiwan Creative Content Fest (TCCF) in Taipei to expand musical theater collaboration between…
Taiwan condemns China for distorting UN resolution, reasserts sovereigntyDevdiscourse · 20 h agoTaiwans Ministry of Foreign Affairs MOFA has condemned China over what it described as false statements undermining the sovereignty of the Republic of China ROC reiterating that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to…
China EconomyCNBC · 24 h agoGot a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox Get this delivered to your inbox, and ... More In China Economy
China Rehearses Taiwan Blockade In Unannounced Naval War DrillZeroHedge · 24 h agoChina may be conducting a major, unannounced war drill aimed at isolating Taiwan, with more than 100 naval and coast guard vessels deployed across the Western Pacific, according to a new assessment. That positioning, according to Karas…
China’s special-purpose barges could overrun Taiwan shores: expertsRadio Free Asia · 21 h agoTAIPEI, Taiwan – China’s construction of “special-purpose barges” has raised concerns about its plans to invade Taiwan, with analysts warning that the vessels could enable Beijing’s rapid troop deployment onto Taiwanese soil, addressing…
Former NCT Member Lucas Wong Makes Acting Debut in Taiwanese Folk-Music Drama ‘A Time’ With Jerry Yan, Ning Chang at Taiwan Creative Content FestVariety · 46 h agoTaiwanese director Tsao Jui-yuan unveiled his new drama series “A Time,” rooted in Taiwan’s campus folk music movement of the 1970s, at the Taiwan Creative Content Fest (TCCF). Tsao, known for “Crystal Boys,” “A Touch of Green” and…
Taiwan detains Communist Party leader over alleged Chinese sponsorship in electionABC News · 29 h agoHe's accused of running under the direction of China’s Communist Party. TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Authorities in Taiwan detained the leader of the island's Taiwan People’s Communist Party, accusing him of running as a candidate for borough chief…
China responds to reports linking Jensen Huang to alleged Chinese spyCNBC · 11 h agoCNBC's Eunice Yoon reports on the Chinese government's response to Nvidia investigation after reports that CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. China responds to reports linking Jensen Huang to alleged…
China’s Amphibious Forces Grow but U.S. Analysts Say Taiwan Invasion Remains High Risk24/7 Wall St. · 15 h agoThe People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan) have a difficult history. To put it mildly. The seeds of this acrimony were sown long before the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. To Beijing, Taiwan… This post was…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCentral Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Trading Economics

Trading closesDec 17, 2026 4:29 AM ET

Traded$40 (57 contracts)

This week$40

At stake$40

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) takes the action of cut more than 12.5bps at its December Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions