Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
>99%chance▲ 53
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Bank of Thailand rate decision in December (Dec 23, 2026 meeting)
The odds
81%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate81%▼ 1
- Hike 1-25bps9%▲ 2
- Cut more than 25bps3%
- Cut 1-25bps3%
- Hike more than 25bps3%
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 53% on Oct 28, 81% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 81% | ▼ 1 | 78¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | |
| Hike 1-25bps | 9% | ▲ 2 | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | |
| Cut more than 25bps | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.0K | |
| Cut 1-25bps | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.4K | |
| Hike more than 25bps | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Bank of Thailand
Search ›- Bank of Thailand confirms a tale of two economies one booming, another struggling with declineThailand’s economy is splitting into two sharply different worlds. Technology exports are surging, large corporations are expanding, and investment is rising. Yet households remain burdened by debt, smaller businesses face shrinking…
- Bank of Thailand Raises Growth Forecasts but Warns Recovery Remains ConcentratedThe Bank of Thailand raised its GDP growth forecasts to 2.4% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027, citing stronger technology exports and private investment. It kept the policy rate at 1%, while noting that growth remains below potential and…
- Thailand takes cross-border QR payments to Bangkok’s historic shopping districtsBANGKOK, Thailand – The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), in cooperation with the Bank of Thailand, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, financial institutions, and private-sector partners, organized the Scan Thailand Pay Like A…
- Thailand central bank raises growth forecasts, holds rate at 1%The Bank of Thailand left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1% but lifted its forecasts for economic expansion both this year and ...
- Bangkok firm behind 'Taobao Thailand' website accused of illegal yuan exchange for buyers of Chinese goodsPolice Lt. Gen. Nathasak Chaowanasai, commissioner of the Central Investigation Bureau, said on Nov. 1 that the man, identified only as Prin, was taken into custody in Bangkok after a complaint from the Bank of Thailand, the Bangkok Post…
- Bangkok opens six riverside viewing sites for November 6 Royal Barge ProcessionPattaya Mail BANGKOK, Thailand – The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has announced six public viewing locations along the Chao Phraya River for the Royal Barge Procession on November 6, offering a combined seating capacity of…
- Thailand tightens financial net on grey money, shell companies and delayed SME paymentsBANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand has introduced a new package of financial and commercial measures aimed at restricting the movement of illicit funds, preventing the use of corporate accounts as money-mule channels and improving payment…
- BoT sounds alarm on fragile labour marketPUBLISHED : 4 Nov 2026 at 04:43 The Bank of Thailand has raised concerns over growing fragility in the country's labour market, as rising unemployment threatens to weigh on domestic consumption. Speaking at a press conference following…
- Baht outlook hinges on US midterm elections and global economic signalsBANGKOK, Thailand – The Thai baht is expected to trade between 33.30 and 34.00 per US dollar during November 2–6, with the US midterm elections, Middle East tensions and foreign investment flows among the key factors influencing its…
- Mideast conflicts, Europe unrest affect local investor sentimentPUBLISHED : 4 Nov 2026 at 07:50 Escalating conflicts in the Middle East and spreading political unrest across Europe are weighing on global investment sentiment, leaving Thailand's stock market vulnerable to further volatility in the near…
- Thailand Business News — Morning BriefingMonday, 2 November 2026 | Thailand, ASEAN and Global Markets Inflation is expected to average 2.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. Energy prices, food costs, geopolitical tensions and potential El Niño-related disruptions remain important risks…
- Emerging markets - Asian forex slips ahead of inflation data, Korean stocks buck AI selloffMANILA (Reuters): Emerging Asian currencies edged lower against the dollar on Monday, while equities were mixed as investors digested the AI rout and awaited a raft of inflation data. An MSCI gauge of emerging-market currencies slipped…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions