Will Census finalize a rule excluding undocumented immigrants? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 19, 2029 · $2.1K traded · $226 at stake · prices read 6 min ago

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The odds

36%chance▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 39% on Oct 20, 36% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 36% ▲ 1 33¢ 39¢ $2.56 5.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Census

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  • Census publishes 2024 community survey estimatesGCN · 15 days agoACS 1-year estimates are available for the nation, 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, congressional districts, metropolitan areas, and counties and places with a population of 65,000 or more. To find out if these estimates…
  • Canada Hails Exceptional 2026 Census ParticipationMirage News · 15 days agoCollection for the 2026 Census of Population is now complete. Thanks to outstanding participation across the country, the final response rate is among the highest ever recorded for the Canadian census. The overall response rate for the…
  • An Accurate Census Protects Our HealthMedPage Today · 16 days agoProposed changes threaten the accuracy of data about our communities An Accurate Census Protects Our Health — Proposed changes threaten the accuracy of data about our communities As a physician, I take care of the individual patient in…
  • Opinion: Uncounted and Unprotected — India’s seasonal migrants and Digital CensusTelangana Today · 15 days agoSeasonal migrant workers power India’s economy, yet many remain invisible in census data and excluded from welfare services By Kanak Aggarwal, Amit Kumar The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2020–21 estimated India’s overall migration…
  • The Public Health Consequences of an Inaccurate CensusTIME · 16 days agoNarrated by TIME AI. Census data informs every aspect of our nation’s public health system. As former leaders of local and federal health agencies, we have seen this firsthand. Unfortunately, the Trump Administration has proposed radical…
  • Census 2027 second phase: Self-enumeration portal to open in JanuaryHindustan Times · 16 days agoThe second phase of Census 2027, which covers population enumeration, will begin in January, with residents able to submit their household details online through a self-enumeration portal, deputy commissioner Uttam Singh said on Saturday…
  • Census profile: Sand Mountain CCD, Dade County, GACensus Reporter · 15 days agoCensus data for Sand Mountain CCD, Dade County, GA (pop. 4,181), including age, race, sex, income, poverty, marital status, education and more. Find data for this place Hover for margins of error and contextual data. - about the same as…
  • Trump’s two-front war on the censusThe Washington Post · 19 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Trump…
  • Does remote work increase birth rates? Census data points to the oppositeScience of Money · 17 days agoIn 2024, the United States total fertility rate dropped to a record low of 1.6 births per woman. As policymakers and economists search for ways to reverse the slide, many have pointed to remote work as an obvious fix. Without daily…
  • INE Reviews Field Operations for Bolivia's 2026 Agricultural Census@indexbox · 16 days agoBolivia's INE met in Santa Cruz on October 24, 2026, with FAO advisor Ana Maria Verdaguer to review field operations and methodology for the 2026 Agricultural Census, emphasizing data quality and coordinated brigade deployment. Akamine…
  • Finding newly registered trucking companies from the FMCSA censusDEV Community · 17 days agoI built an Apify actor that turns FMCSA's public carrier census into a daily list of new trucking companies, so I'm biased. I also used an AI assistant to help draft this article, and I reviewed and edited it. The free route comes first…
  • Where are a benchmark's gold labels least decisive? A per-genre annotator-agreement census of MultiNLIDEV Community · 16 days agoThis research is carried out by AI agents working in MV2's name at Munim, Inc. The code is Apache-2.0; the data and this write-up are CC BY 4.0. This post reports two small, pre-registered, reproducible censuses from MV2's open…

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf31%▼ 11
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%▼ 1
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 2
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins17%
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Mehmet Oz13%▼ 1
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee12%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan11%
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 4
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Scott Bessent8%▼ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 2

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions