Closer Senate Race: Florida or South Carolina? (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes tomorrow 10:00 AM ET · $1 today · $1.9K traded · $548 at stake · prices read 73 min ago

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The odds

97%Florida US Senate
  • Florida US Senate97%▼ 1
  • South Carolina US Senate3%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Florida US Senate: 35% on Oct 19, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 8 PM ETFlorida US Senate: 29% → 84%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Florida US Senate 97% ▼ 1 94¢ $1.03 1.9K
South Carolina US Senate 3% ▼ 1 5¢ $20.00 4.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Closer Senate, South Carolina, Florida

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  • South Carolina election resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for South Carolina in the 2026 midterm election. Track U.S. Senate, U.S. House and governor races with real-time vote counts and maps from AP. South Carolina election results AP’s guide to this state When the nation waits for…
  • South Carolina voters weigh in on close Senate raceFOX 5 Atlanta · 6 days agoVoters in South Carolina are deciding a closely watched Senate race between Republican candidate Darlene Graham and her Democratic challenger. Voters told FOX News that the cost of living and health care are top concerns. Graham emphasized…
  • RESULTS: Florida's US Senate, US House racesWESH · 7 days agoIt's a big race in Florida: Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon for the state's next U.S. Senate seat. >> MORE: Candidates clash in Florida's US Senate race Five U.S. House seats are also up for grabs in Central Florida - plus more across the…
  • South Carolina U.S. House results: 1st DistrictAP News · 6 days agoSouth Carolina U.S. House Election Live Results 2026 AP News South Carolina U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on…
  • South Carolina votes rolling in, too soon to callFox News · 6 days ago‘America’s Newsroom’ co-host Bill Hemmer takes a look at where the South Carolina election stands on 'FOX News Democracy 26.' South Carolina votes rolling in, too soon to call ‘America’s Newsroom’ co-host Bill Hemmer takes a look at where…
  • Democrat Annie Andrews projected to win South Carolina Senate seatNBC News · 6 days agoNBC News Vibes are high at Talarico HQ as results come in Ossoff thanks supporters after re-election win in Georgia Kornacki explains shocking upset in South Carolina Kornacki breaks down Democratic lead in critical Kansas county Rep…
  • Democratic candidate Annie Andrews makes history in South Carolina's Senate raceCNN · 6 days agoDemocratic candidate Annie Andrews makes history in South Carolina’s Senate race CNN Democratic candidate Annie Andrews makes history in South Carolina’s Senate race Democratic Senator-elect Annie Andrews says 'I think we just made some…
  • South Carolina 2026 election resultsCNN · 7 days agoRepublican Sen. Darline Graham is running for a full term after being appointed to replace her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham earlier this year. She’s competing with Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews. South Carolina voted for…
  • Andrews projected to defeat Graham in South Carolina US Senate raceFox News · 6 days agoFox News Andrews projected to defeat Graham in South Carolina US Senate race 'FOX News Democracy 26’ panelists assess a projection that Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., will be defeated by Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in the South Carolina…
  • Democrat Annie Andrews will unseat GOP Sen. Darline Graham in South CarolinaCNN · 6 days agoCNN Democrat Annie Andrews will unseat GOP Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina Democrat Annie Andrews will win the US Senate race in South Carolina, CNN projects, defeating Sen. Darline Graham and flipping a seat that Republicans have…
  • Democrat Annie Andrews wins South Carolina Senate race in major upsetNPR · 6 days agoMidterms coverage: Live results | What to know | Stories around the countryStay connected: NPR Politics Podcast | NPR Politics newsletter | NPR app Andrews, a pediatrician, becomes the first woman to win a Senate election in South…
  • Senator-elect Annie Andrews gives a victory speech in South Carolina.@WashingtonPost · 6 days agoThe Washington Post

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Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None
  • None98%
  • AK1%
  • All 7<1%▼ 3
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  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
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  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
  • AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
Elections › Senate

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KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2028 · $272K today
Elections › Senate

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