Will CMS announce a major Medicaid payment deferral against another state? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $155 traded · $142 at stake · prices read 50 min ago

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The odds

39%Before Jul 1, 2027
  • Before Jan 1, 202728%▲ 1
  • Before Jul 1, 202739%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 30% on Oct 19, 28% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Sep 1, 2026 3% $33.33 53.00
Before Jan 1, 2027 28% ▲ 1 24¢ 32¢ $3.13 548
Before Jul 1, 2027 39% ▲ 1 35¢ 43¢ $2.33

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Medicaid

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  • States sue Trump administration again to delay Medicaid work requirementsSTAT · 3 days agoThe Trump administration is facing another lawsuit over its sweeping changes to Medicaid less than a week after a federal judge ruled that implementation of work requirements would cause “irreparable harm.” The complaint from four states…
  • Keisha Lance Bottoms making Medicaid expansion a priority after historic Georgia winCBS News · 5 days agoNovember 5, 2026 / 8:59 AM EST / CBS Atlanta Speaking to supporters at her Cascade Road campaign office Wednesday, Keisha Lance Bottoms basked in her victory as Georgia's governor-elect. Bottoms said working with state lawmakers across the…
  • Democrats pledge to quickly reverse changes to Medicaid, restore ACA subsidiesThe Washington Post · 5 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The incoming…
  • Ellison joins lawsuit challenging Medicaid work requirements@KTTCTV · 3 days agoST. PAUL, Minn. (KTTC) – Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison has joined three other state attorneys general in a lawsuit challenging federal Medicaid work requirements set to take effect in 2027. The lawsuit, filed Thursday, asks a…
  • Ellison sues Trump administration over new Medicaid work requirementsMPR News · 3 days agoMinnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison has filed a lawsuit to block the Trump administration from requiring the state to enforce new federal work requirements for Medicaid recipients, arguing the policy is unconstitutional and could…
  • Changes to Medicaid Eligibility in H.R.1@WilsonSchool · 4 days agoThe findings originated from a policy workshop that Varcie, Bhat, and Knox participated in during the fall 2025 semester. On July 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed H.R. 1, which implemented a new requirement for certain adult Medicaid…
  • $950M in shady Medicaid billing, aides ‘like homeless people’ at NJ senior care company: sourcesNew York Post · 5 days agoA New Jersey-based medical group has presided over $950 million in shady Medicaid billing home health care and adult day care services, an investigation by The Post reveals. One operation owned by Honor Health Network, the Broadway Respite…
  • Medicaid Cuts and Caregiving in Congress: Andy Kim@AJMC_Journal · 3 days agoPresented by The Community Oncology Alliance Senator Andy Kim (D, New Jersey) discusses plans to reverse Medicaid cuts and make caregiving a priority in the next Congress. Efforts to reverse Medicaid cuts and make caregiving a national…
  • Medicaid Supports Planning Programshowardcountymd.gov · 4 days agoLearn about home and community-based services. Long Term Services and Supports (LTSS) are provided in home and community-based settings, as well as in assisted living facilities. For more information to be screened for eligibility contact…
  • Healthcare Execs Indicted For Defrauding DC Medicaid $14M - Law360@law360 · 3 days agoHealthcare Execs Indicted For Defrauding DC Medicaid $14M Law360 Try our Advanced Search for more refined results The Practice of Law Deep News & Analysis Healthcare Execs Indicted For Defrauding DC Medicaid $14M Law360 is on it, so you…
  • Medicaid Fraud and Patient Protection DivisionOffice of the Attorney General · 3 days agoEffective July 1, 2011, the Georgia Medicaid Fraud Unit has been consolidated under the Georgia Department of Law pursuant to an Executive Order by the Governor. Previously, the unit was composed of a three agency task force that included…
  • Four states target Medicaid work rules in new lawsuitmodernhealthcare.com · 3 days agoMinnesota, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington argue Medicaid work requirements unlawfully coerce states by threatening federal funding tied to coverage. Four states target Medicaid work rules in new lawsuit The AI documentation company said…

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 13
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 3
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 3
  • Marco Rubio16%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
  • Chris Wright14%▼ 1
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%
  • Tom Homan11%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee11%▼ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 2
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz9%▼ 9
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 3

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

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