2030 U.S. Senate winner?

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Feb 1, 2031 · $308 today · $308 traded · $308 at stake · prices read 19 min ago

The odds

62%Democratic party

Democratic party62%▲ 4
Republican party39%▼ 4

How the odds have moved

Democratic party: 58% on Nov 8, 62% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Democratic party	62%	▲ 4	60¢	63¢	$1.59	500
Republican party	39%	▼ 4	37¢	40¢	$2.50

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: U.S. Senate

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Mississippi U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoLive results for the 2026 Mississippi U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Mississippi U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits…
Alaska U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoAlaska U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026 AP News Alaska U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night…
Louisiana U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoLive results for the 2026 Louisiana U.S. Senate general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Louisiana U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for…
El-Sayed makes history as first Muslim elected to U.S. SenateCNN · 4 days agoCNN El-Sayed makes history as first Muslim elected to U.S. Senate Arab American Institute President James Zogby discusses Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed's historic win in Michigan and the impact of the GOP's anti-Arab and anti-Muslim…
There’s No Need to Appoint Pete Hegseth to the U.S. SenateNational Review · 4 days agoNational Review
Georgia U.S. Senate resultsAP News · 5 days agoGeorgia U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026 AP News Georgia U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night…
Idaho U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Idaho U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
Oregon U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Oregon U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics…
Massachusetts U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Massachusetts U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
Tennessee U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Tennessee U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
Rhode Island U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News Rhode Island U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…
South Dakota U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2026AP News · 5 days agoAP News South Dakota U.S. Senate results AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and…

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Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None

None98%
AK2%
All 7<1%▼ 3

125 more

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate winner? (2026)

98%Democratic party

Democratic party98%▲ 1
Republican party2%▼ 1

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer88%▼ 2
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 2
Brian Schatz1%▼ 1

10 more

Chris Murphy1%
Mark Warner<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Raphael Warnock<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Tammy Baldwin<1%
Jon Ossoff<1%
Ruben Gallego<1%
Jacky Rosen<1%

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
Brian Schatz2%▼ 1

8 more

John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate Election Winner

99%Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola99%
Sen. Dan Sullivan1%▼ 1
Ann Diener<1%

4 more

Dustin Darden<1%
Richard Grayson<1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1%
David Leslie<1%

Elections › Senate

Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)

99%Scott Colom

Scott Colom99%
Cindy Hyde-Smith2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onLibrary of Congress

Trading closesFeb 1, 2031 10:00 AM ET

Traded$308 (500 contracts)

Today$308

This week$308

At stake$308

Followed here sinceNov 8, 2026

The rules

If the Democratic party has won control of the Senate in 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions