Will the FDA approve CagriSema?

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $4.7K traded · $3.2K at stake · prices read 35 min ago

The odds

79%Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 202779%
Before Jul 1, 202792%
Before Jan 1, 202896%

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 70% on Oct 20, 79% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 7, 11 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 93% → 79%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Oct 1, 2026	3%			$33.33	3.2K
Before Jan 1, 2027	79%	77¢	81¢	$1.23	1.6K
Before Jul 1, 2027	92%	90¢	93¢	$1.08	2.2K
Before Jan 1, 2028	96%	94¢	98¢	$1.02	1.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, CagriSema

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Medline electric beds pose fire hazard after 2 deaths, FDA warnsCBS News · 10 days agoUpdated on: October 30, 2026 / 11:25 AM EDT / CBS News The Food and Drug Administration is warning that electric hospital beds from medical equipment supplier Medline can pose a fire hazard, after two people died and another 16 users were…
FDA again bypasses advisers to remove black-box warnings from menopause treatmentsthe Guardian · 10 days agoSome experts express concern about ‘lack of transparency’ as agency removes warnings on three estrogen patches Three more patches for treating menopause will no longer carry black-box warnings about cardiovascular disease, breast cancer…
RFK Jr. eases restrictions on some peptides not approved by FDACBS News · 11 days agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. RFK Jr…
RFK Jr. eases restrictions on six peptides not approved by FDACBS News · 11 days agoCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. RFK Jr. eases restrictions…
FDA Approved an Antibiotic Based on Bogus Data -- but the Courts Don't CareCBS News · 11 days agoUpdated on: February 18, 2011 / 6:34 PM EST / MoneyWatch The Ketek antibiotic scandal at Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is receding into ancient history (if you agree that 2007 is "ancient"), so it's not until you read this new class action ruling…
FDA zooms in on rare disease reviewsPOLITICO · 12 days agoDelivered every Tuesday and Friday by 12 p.m., Prescription Pulse examines the latest pharmaceutical news and policy. 10/27/2026 12:00 PM EDT A NOT-SO ‘RARE’ FOCUS — The FDA’s recently announced effort to reimagine the review process for…
CagriSema lowers weight for women across reproductive lifespanhealiotwo · 12 days agoOnce-weekly CagriSema reduced weight by 25% at 68 weeks for women with overweight or obesity, and weight loss was observed among women across all reproductive stages, according to data from two posters. In the first post hoc analysis…
HIV prevention drug lenacapavir approved by FDA as twice-yearly injectionCBS News · 12 days agoUpdated on: June 18, 2025 / 8:07 PM EDT / CBS News The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved the drug lenacapavir as a twice-yearly injection to prevent HIV. The drug, called Yeztugo from company Gilead Sciences, was approved…
Trump admin eases access to unproven peptides favored by RFK Jr. despite FDA oppositionNew York Post · 11 days agoWASHINGTON — The Trump administration on Wednesday acted to ease access to unproven peptide drugs favored by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Food and Drug Administration scientific staffers had little input on the decision and…
Inside RFK Jr.'s push for pharmacies to make non-FDA approved peptidesCBS News · 12 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation.
HHS green lights six peptides, despite concerns from FDA scientistsSTAT · 12 days agoMeghana Keshavan is a biotech correspondent at STAT and co-writer of The Readout newsletter. She joined STAT in 2016. She has written about the life sciences industry for more than a decade. Before that, she worked for news outlets like…
El-Sayed claps back at RFK Jr., and FDA’s ‘enforcement discretion’ on peptidesSTAT · 12 days agoCare to test your knowledge of which fellas Trump thinks are hot? Send news tips and hunks to [email protected] or John_Wilkerson.07 on Signal. Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan. He’s also “a second-generation…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFood and Drug Administration

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$4.7K (8,398 contracts)

This week$631

At stake$3.2K

In the news45 headlines today, 777 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the FDA approves CagriSema for marketing before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions