Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Jun 30, 2028 · $2.1K traded · $811 at stake · prices read 71 min ago

The odds

Aug 30, 2027even chance by

Before Apr 1, 202710%
Before Jul 1, 202715%
Before Oct 1, 202770%
Before Jan 1, 202886%
Before Jul 1, 202895%

How the odds have moved

Before Apr 1, 2027: 4% on Oct 20, 10% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Apr 1, 2027	10%	6¢	14¢	$7.14	205
Before Jul 1, 2027	15%	11¢	19¢	$5.26	73.00
Before Oct 1, 2027	70%	66¢	73¢	$1.37	1.4K
Before Jan 1, 2028	86%	82¢	90¢	$1.11	1.2K
Before Jul 1, 2028	95%	91¢	99¢	$1.01

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, V940, KEYTRUDA

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FDA, CMS look to collaborate with states on health AISTAT · 6 days agoSTAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts…
FDA OKs generic HIV prevention shot, widening access for lower-income countriesSTAT · 7 days agoEd Silverman, a senior writer and Pharmalot columnist at STAT, has been covering the pharmaceutical industry for more than three decades. His stories explore prescription drug pricing, affordability and access, as well issues surrounding…
Samsung Bioepis Files US Application for Biosimilar to MSD’s Keytruda® (Pembrolizumab)Pearce IP · 7 days agoHome / News / BioBlast® On 30 October 2026, Samsung Bioepis announced that it has applied to the FDA for marketing authorisation of SB27, biosimilar to MSD’s Keytruda® (pembrolizumab), across 18 cancer indications. This is the second…
Anktiva Vs Keytruda: ImmunityBio Exec Chair Slams FDA For Double Standards In ApprovalsStocktwits · 9 days agoImmunityBio’s executive chairman, Patrick Soon-Shiong, took direct aim at the FDA this weekend, accusing regulators of fast-tracking Merck’s blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda while keeping Anktiva boxed into a single bladder cancer…
DOJ Signals Broader FDA Disclosure AuthorityThe National Law Review · 6 days agoDepartment of Justice Office of Legal Counsel issued an opinion concluding that the Food and Drug Administration has authority to permit broader disclosure of supply - The U.S. Department of Justice Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) recently…
Moderna Stock Up 650% This Year as Personalized Cancer Vaccine Battle With Keytruda Patent Cliff Takes ShapeBigGo Finance · 7 days agoModerna has gained roughly 650% in 2026, making it the S&P 500's top performer, driven by enthusiasm for intismeran, a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine developed with Merck. In a Phase 3 melanoma trial, the therapy combined with Keytruda…
FDA Psychiatry Digest: October 2026Medscape · 7 days agoMedscape FDA Psychiatry Digest: October 2026 Edited by Dawn Attride This digest highlights FDA activity in October related to therapeutics for psychiatric illness. For information on approvals in other specialties during 2026, see our FDA…
FDA approves Lupin's generic amifampridine for LEMS@onclive · 6 days agoContemporary Pediatrics connects pediatricians with peer-reviewed articles, guideline updates, and practice strategies for real-world clinical application. The FDA has approved Lupin's abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for…
FDA Approval; Major Milestone for Preservative-Free Ketamine Ahead of FDA Goal Date for Treatment of Suicidal Depression by NRx Pharmaceuticals, IncPRLog · 6 days agoPRLog FDA Approval; Major Milestone for Preservative-Free Ketamine Ahead of FDA Goal Date for Treatment of Suicidal Depression by NRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc
Unanimous Supreme Court upholds FDA block of flavored vapesABC News · 6 days agoThe FDA's refused to authorize sale of kid-friendly e-cigarettes. A unanimous Supreme Court on Wednesday backed the Food and Drug Administration's refusal to authorize the sale of kid-friendly flavored e-cigarettes and vapes, including the…
FDA Issues Safety Alert for Little Wicomico Company OystersFood Poisoning Bulletin · 6 days agoHome » FDA Issues Safety Alert for Little Wicomico Company Oysters The FDA has issued a safety alert for Little Wicomico Company oysters that were harvested from the Little Wicomico River in Virginia because they are linked to a Salmonella…
FDA Approves Tildrakizumab for Adults With Psoriatic Arthritis@Pharmacy_Times · 6 days agoPharmacy Times

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFood and Drug Administration

Trading closesJun 30, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$2.1K (2,937 contracts)

This week$27

At stake$811

In the news92 headlines today, 812 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions