Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Dec 31, 2031 · $6.5K traded · $1.3K at stake · prices read 50 min ago

The odds

Nov 10, 2028even chance by

Before Jan 1, 202710%
Before Jan 1, 202841%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 202952%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 203053%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 203153%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 203253%

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2028: 35% on Oct 20, 41% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027	10%		6¢	13¢	$7.69	1.3K
Before Jan 1, 2028	41%	▼ 1	37¢	45¢	$2.22	1.4K
Before Jan 1, 2029	52%	▼ 1	48¢	55¢	$1.82	2.6K
Before Jan 1, 2030	53%	▼ 1	49¢	56¢	$1.79	3.5K
Before Jan 1, 2031	53%	▼ 1	50¢	57¢	$1.75	2.8K
Before Jan 1, 2032	53%		51¢	52¢	$1.92	2.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, MDMA, PTSD

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PharmAla Biotech Signs Supply and Data Agreement with Aalborg University Hospital for Danish Randomized Trial of MDMA-Assisted Treatment for Service-Related PTSDYahoo Finance · 22 h agoLaNeo™ to be the sole MDMA supply for the MIRROR study; PharmAla receives a perpetual, worldwide licence to the study dataTORONTO, Nov. 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PharmAla Biotech Holdings Inc. ("PharmAla" or the "Company") (CSE: MDMA)…
Lame-duck Rep. Max Miller’s custody trial delayed after expert concludes his ex-wife has PTSDNew York Post · 12 h agoWASHINGTON — A custody trial pitting lame-duck Rep. Max Miller against his former wife, Emily Moreno, has been postponed to next year after Miller’s attorneys cried foul over an expert’s conclusion that Moreno suffered post-traumatic…
FDA approves novel Bayer drug to reduce recurrence of strokeSTAT · 4 h agoBy Elaine Chen and Elizabeth Cooney The Food and Drug Administration on Monday approved Bayer’s drug to reduce recurrence of stroke, making available the first in a novel class of medications that hold the promise of preventing blood clots…
US FDA orders new eye risk warnings for Ozempic, ZepboundCNN · 10 h agoThe US health regulator on Monday informed patients and healthcare providers of a potential increased risk of a serious eye condition associated with the use of ‌GLP-1 drugs for weight loss and diabetes. The US Food and Drug…
FDA warns GLP-1 drugs carry potential risk of rare eye conditionSTAT · 11 h agoThe Food and Drug Administration on Monday warned that GLP-1 drugs carry a potential risk for a rare but serious eye condition and required pharma companies to inform patients and doctors of the risk. The condition, called non-arteritic…
FDA tells GLP-1 makers to warn of potential vision loss side effectThe Washington Post · 6 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The agency is…
GLP-1 drugs must have new warning label over incurable blindness condition, says FDANew York Post · 6 h agoYou’re going to want to keep an eye on this. The Food and Drug Administration warned Monday that GLP-1 drugs may raise the risk of a rare but serious condition that can lead to permanent blindness. The agency is ordering drugmakers to…
FDA orders new warning on GLP-1s over rare eye condition linked to sudden blindnessNBC News · 8 h agoThe Food and Drug Administration said Monday that GLP-1 drugmakers must add a warning label about a rare eye condition that can cause sudden blindness. The condition, called nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy, or NAION…
Keralam: Two youths arrested with MDMA in KannurNews18 · 17 h agoKannur (Keralam) [India], November 9 (ANI): Two youths were arrested with MDMA near the New Bus Stand in Kannur following a police inspection based on a confidential tip-off about drug sales. The arrested persons have been identified as…
AI Predicts PTSD Risk From Patients' ER StoriesMirage News · 16 h agoAn AI tool can analyze patients' narratives about injuries that sent them to the emergency room to predict who will later develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a new study found. About 43 million patients are admitted to a US…
Study Examines PTSD Risk and Emotion Regulation in Displaced Sudanese ChildrenBIOENGINEER.ORG · 9 h agoA community-based study of 703 internally displaced Sudanese children revealed a 74.4 percent prevalence of PTSD symptoms, identifying maternal employment and geographic location as key risk factors. In a community-based cross-sectional…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFood and Drug Administration

Trading closesDec 31, 2031 11:59 PM ET

Traded$6.5K (13,687 contracts)

This week$14

At stake$1.3K

In the news92 headlines today, 823 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions