Georgia Senate: which counties will Jon Ossoff win? (2026)
99%Spalding
- Spalding99%
- Peach98%
- Houston98%
3 more
- Burke96%
- Lowndes93%
- Fayette90%
Install
Texas Senate: which counties will James Talarico win? (2026)
The odds
100%Bastrop
- Bastrop100%
- Brazoria100%
- Denton100%
- Collin100%
- Fort Bend100%
- Tarrant100%
- Bell99%
How the odds have moved
Bastrop: 27% on Oct 20, 100% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 3, 11 PM ETBastrop: 31% → 99%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop | 100% | 99¢ | 10.0K | |||
| Brazoria | 100% | 99¢ | 6.1K | |||
| Denton | 100% | 99¢ | 26.2K | |||
| Collin | 100% | 99¢ | 17.1K | |||
| Fort Bend | 100% | 99¢ | 7.1K | |||
| Tarrant | 100% | 99¢ | 28.4K | |||
| Bell | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 9.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas Senate, James Talarico
Search ›- Texas Senate race poll shows James Talarico leading Ken PaxtonDemocrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by seven points in a New York Times/Siena poll for the Texas Senate race. Mike Tobin reports on the historic spending in this election, which has seen over half a billion dollars poured…
- Texas Senate Race Tests Nearly 40 Years of Republican ControlCNN Texas Senate Race Tests Nearly 40 Years of Republican Control CNN's Ed Lavandera breaks down the closely watched Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton.
- James Talarico rallies thousands in Austin ahead of high-stakes Texas Senate electionNBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth James Talarico rallies thousands in Austin ahead of high-stakes Texas Senate election
- James Talarico’s Next Big Play: Sending the Houston Texans Out of Texas?Houston Texans fans have enough problems without worrying about their own politicians putting the franchise on a moving truck. Imagine explaining to Houston that its next big football storyline isn't a playoff run, a quarterback…
- Polling remains tight in Texas Senate, governor races ahead of Election DayThe marquis statewide race has proven to be the showdown for U.S. Senate between Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, running for a fourth term, is facing his most competitive general election…
- James Talarico, Ken Paxton Texas Senate race heads to votersJames Talarico, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks to reporters after voting at Gus Garcia Recreation Center in Austin on Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. The most expensive Senate race in U.S. history heads for the final frame today as…
- As Election Day nears, a look at the big money, tight polls, and closing themes in the Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken PaxtonNovember 1, 2026 / 6:00 AM CST / CBS Texas Despite the spending, Talarico has continued to lead the polls, even though the race has tightened. As of Friday evening, the Real Clear Politics average of polls between October 8 and October 28…
- James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton—What Final Texas Polls ShowNov 02, 2026 at 06:42 AM EST Nov 02, 2026 at 06:53 AM EST The race for a Senate seat in Texas may be on the verge of breaking through for the Democrats for the first time since 1988. Two closing polls show James Talarico leading Republican…
- Former Rep. Kevin Brady on midterms, Texas Senate raceCNBC Former Rep. Kevin Brady on midterms, Texas Senate race
- Texas Senate candidates hold their final rallies ahead of Election DayCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Texas Senate candidates…
- Ken Paxton issues dire warning as Texas Senate race goes down to the wireFox News Ken Paxton issues dire warning as Texas Senate race goes down to the wire The Texas attorney general and U.S. Senate candidate urged Republicans to vote, warning that Democrats could threaten the state’s conservative stronghold in…
- WATCH LIVE: James Talarico makes his case to Texas voters ahead of midtermsDemocratic nominee for Senate James Talarico holds a rally in San Antonio, Texas days before midterms. WATCH LIVE: James Talarico makes his case to Texas voters ahead of midterms Democratic nominee for Senate James Talarico holds a rally…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions