China’s government budget balance in 2026
-8.12%median
-10%-6%
Median -8.12%Middle half -8.41% – -7.74%
Install
US government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-8.29%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -8.29%Middle half -8.8% – -7.77%
How the odds have moved
Median: -8.25% on Oct 20, -8.29% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -9.0% of GDP | 85% | 83¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 3.3K | |
| Above -8.5% of GDP | 61% | ▲ 1 | 59¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 12.2K |
| Above -8.0% of GDP | 35% | 33¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 5.4K | |
| Above -7.5% of GDP | 14% | 12¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 11.8K | |
| Above -7.0% of GDP | 6% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 4.6K |
| Above -6.5% of GDP | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Above -6.0% of GDP | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: United States
Search ›- Iranian scientists in the United States face major upheavalSophia Chen is a freelance writer in Ohio. A destroyed police building in Tehran, where the conflict in Iran has severely disrupted the lives of citizens, including students at home and abroad.Credit: Majid Saeedi/Getty Babak wants to…
- Editorial Roundup: United StatesStar Beacon Excerpts from recent editorials in the United States and abroad: Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content. Please enable it in your browser settings. - Bond set at $1 million for murder case, three…
- Iran's ayatollah makes new threat to United StatesFox News Iran's ayatollah makes new threat to United States Fox News correspondent Madeleine Rivera joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to report on the Iranian ayatollah's latest warning towards the United States as Middle East tensions simmer…
- Opinions of the United States and free tradeHere we all are, waiting for the results from contests in U.S. electoral districts we had never spent more than two seconds thinking about before Donald Trump became president. Now, what to read to pass the time before the midterm…
- The Lowest Mountain Range In The United Statesis New Jersey’s Watchungs, low basalt ridges built by ancient lava that sheltered George Washington’s army. The highest point in New Jersey's Watchung Mountains is High Mountain in the town of Wayne, at just 879 feet above sea level. That…
- Stein on Notable Justices of the Supreme Court of the United StatesThe American Law Institute Stein on Notable Justices of the Supreme Court of the United States Meet 25 of the most notable Supreme Court Justices, from Chief Justices John Marshall and Earl Warren to the first woman, African American, and…
- Lupin Launches Raltegravir Tablets, USP, 600 mg in the United StatesLupin Limited today announced the launch of Raltegravir Tablets USP, 600 mg in the United States following the approval from the U.S. FDA for its Abbreviated New Drug Application. 03 Nov 2026, 09:40 PM IST Updated 03 Nov 2026, 09:40 PM IST…
- 6 Most Alligator Filled Rivers In The United StatesWorldAtlas Although they were once hunted close to extinction for their hides, the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) has made a significant recovery, now with close to 5 million individuals spread across the southeastern…
- Critical Technology Patent Publications in China and the United States, 1985-2022https://economy.ac/ - Critical Technology Patent Publications in China and the United States, 1985-2022 - Next Domestic Patent Publications in China and the United States, 1985-2022
- South Africa Reaffirms United States Economic TiesRequired for core website features, security, and preference storage. These cannot be switched off. Help us understand how visitors use the website so we can improve content and journeys. Help us measure campaign activity and improve…
- Okaloosa County sets date for historic SS United States sinkingThe SS United States spent just 17 years carrying passengers across the Atlantic. It’s been out of service for more than half a century. Now, Okaloosa County is preparing to sink the 990-foot ocean liner about 22 nautical miles southwest…
- United States Sets Election Day Record For Gas PricesNo matter your political party, we're all feeling the pinch of high gas prices. And as Americans go to the polls, fuel prices are at Election Day record highs. United States Sets Election Day Record For Gas Prices This year, Americans are…
Related markets
All growth & recession ›Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
-3.91%median
-5.5%-1.5%
Median -3.91%Middle half -4.28% – -3.66%
France’s government budget balance in 2026
-5.24%median
-7%-3%
Median -5.24%Middle half -5.46% – -5.01%
United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
-4.26%median
-6%-2%
Median -4.26%Middle half -4.8% – -3.72%
Italy’s government budget balance in 2026
-2.8%median
-5%-1%
Median -2.8%Middle half -3.15% – -2.53%
Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
-1.82%median
-4%0%
Median -1.82%Middle half -2.21% – -1.53%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions