US government budget balance in 2026
-8.29%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -8.29%Middle half -8.8% – -7.77%
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Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-3.91%median
-5.5%-1.5%
Median -3.91%Middle half -4.28% – -3.66%
How the odds have moved
Median: -3.92% on Oct 6, -3.91% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -5.0% of GDP | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 13.8K | |
| Above -4.5% of GDP | 88% | 85¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 9.9K | |
| Above -4.0% of GDP | 59% | 55¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 3.4K | |
| Above -3.5% of GDP | 9% | 6¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 6.4K | |
| Above -3.0% of GDP | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 234 | |
| Above -2.5% of GDP | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 102 | |
| Above -2.0% of GDP | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Germany
Search ›- Shops looted as German cost of living protests turn violentRioters looted several shops in Frankfurt late on Saturday and clashes erupted there and in other German cities after largely peaceful mass protests over the cost of living. There were incidents of violence in Berlin, Cologne and Hamburg…
- BBC Audio | Sporting Witness | Germany’s first football shirt sponsorIn 1973, the head of the alcohol brand Jägermeister, Gunter Mast, decided he wanted to sponsor his local football team Eintracht Braunschweig. However, under the rules of the West German Football Federation, the DFB, advertising on shirts…
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Stuttgart: German Bundesliga stats & head-to-headAttempt saved. Facundo Medina (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) header from the centre of the box is saved in the top centre of the goal by Dennis Seimen (Stuttgart). Assisted by Edmond Tapsoba with a headed pass. Attempt missed. Afonso Moreira (Bayer…
- France and Germany braced for unrest with hundreds of demonstrations planned – Europe liveFrench interior minister, Laurent Nuñez, warned earlier this week of a ‘very high risk of public disorder’ In Germany, a loose alliance of groups called Gen Z regelt (Gen Z is sorting it) has called for supporters to turn out in more than…
- From teargas in Paris to gen Z in Germany: protests across Europe – in picturesDemonstrations over the high cost of living and inequality spread from France to Germany and Albania Continue reading... Demonstrations over the high cost of living and inequality spread from France to Germany and Albania
- Germany is prosecuting online trolls. Here's how the country is fighting hate speech on the internet.February 16, 2025 / 7:00 PM EST / CBS News Dozens of police teams across Germany raided homes before dawn in a coordinated crackdown on a recent Tuesday. The state police weren't looking for drugs or guns, they were looking for people…
- Cost-of-living protests set to spread to Germany on Halloween as France braces for fresh unrestCost-of-living protests that began in France are spreading to Germany with tens of thousands of people expected to turn out across the country on Saturday for demonstrations that coincide with Halloween. The new German youth-led movement…
- Germany Frauen to play Argentina and Peru in November friendliesKlara Buehl of Germany celebrates with Melissa Koessler, Linda Dallmann, Janina Minge Franziska Kett, Elisa Senss and Cora Zicai (L-R) of Germany aft ... The Germany Frauen will be going across the Atlantic Ocean for their last…
- Cost of living protests to spread to Germany and reignite in France on HalloweenActivists call for people to make their anger known over poor public services including education and housing Street protests sweeping Europe are expected to spread to Germany and reignite in France on Saturday, with police mobilised to…
- Elversberg’s Felix Keidel reflects on spectacular free-kick, friendly club wagers, and Germany prospectsThe 23-year-old's brilliantly executed set piece set the tone for Elversberg's emphatic victory at the URSAPHARMArena. Francis Onyeka and Maurice Krattenmacher added further goals before halftime, while substitute Cole Campbell completed…
- £67m Germany midfielder is Liverpool's Alex Scott alternativeIt's no secret that Liverpool admire Alex Scott. The 23-year-old Bournemouth midfielder has previously worked with head coach Andoni Iraola at the Vitality Stadium. Now a fully established England international Scott has risen in…
- Girl, 8, injured in wolf attack at German zooAn 8-year-old girl was attacked by at least one wolf inside a German zoo’s enclosure and suffered serious injuries, officials said. The attack occurred Wednesday during a special event for children at the Johannismühle Wildlife Park, south…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions