US government budget balance in 2026
-8.29%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -8.29%Middle half -8.8% – -7.77%
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United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-4.26%median
-6%-2%
Median -4.26%Middle half -4.8% – -3.72%
How the odds have moved
Median: -4.25% on Oct 20, -4.26% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -5.5% of GDP | 90% | 87¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 14.8K | |
| Above -5.0% of GDP | 80% | 77¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 13.2K | |
| Above -4.5% of GDP | 68% | 64¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 10.9K | |
| Above -4.0% of GDP | 32% | 31¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 4.0K | |
| Above -3.5% of GDP | 20% | 17¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 6.8K | |
| Above -3.0% of GDP | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | ||
| Above -2.5% of GDP | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 671 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: United Kingdom
Search ›- Armenia and the United Kingdom signed a defense cooperation program for 2026-2027ArmInfo Armenia and the United Kingdom signed a defense cooperation program for 2026-2027 ArmInfo. Bilateral defense consultations between Armenia and the United Kingdom took place in London. According to the press service of the Armenian…
- Vietnam and the United Kingdom promote connectivity in commodity derivatives markets.On the afternoon of November 6th, the British Embassy and Consulate General in Vietnam, in collaboration with Boston Consulting Group, organized an online seminar titled “UK - Vietnam: Developing the Commodity Derivatives Trading Market by…
- A partnership built on security: post-Brexit rapprochement between Germany and the United KingdomPubAffairs Bruxelles Since the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, UK-German relations have undergone a remarkable transformation: from Berlin’s deliberate distancing from London during the Brexit negotiations, when Germany consistently…
- Actors, technology and geography: arenas of political economy for industrial decarbonisation policy in the United KingdomOnce these resources have been determined at the macro-level, a second arena involves the distribution of policy benefits across different types of technology and decarbonisation solutions. Industrial production typically involves multiple…
- United Kingdom: HMRC clarifies VAT treatment of crypto-assetsThe UK’s tax authority, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), has published guidance explaining how existing VAT rules apply to crypto-asset transactions. As there are no specific VAT rules for crypto-assets, sellers must assess their…
- Johnathan Burch Among Finalists for Highly Coveted Rhodes Scholarship to Study in the United KingdomRhodes College senior Johnathan Burch from Heath Springs, SC, is among the United States finalists to be interviewed for the highly coveted Rhodes Scholarship. The scholarship is the oldest and perhaps the best-known international…
- King, Scopely, and two other mobile publishers violated advertising requirements in the United KingdomWN Hub The United Kingdom's Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has banned the advertisement of mobile games by King, Scopely, Omnilojo, and Vistrex in the country. However, this ban is specific not to the promotion of the titles as a…
- Bilateral defence consultations took place between the Republic of Armenia and the United KingdomOn November 4, in London, bilateral defence consultations took place between the Republic of Armenia and the United Kingdom. During the consultations, discussions focused on issues related to regional and international security, as well as…
- United Kingdom Lloyds House Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (-0.3%) in October: Actual (-1.2%)AUD/USD hits a three-week low during the Asian session on Friday as the RBA’s dovish shift and a rout in equity markets weigh on the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, the recent slump in US bond yields to a two-month low keeps US Dollar…
- United Kingdom’s Cotton Market Forecast to Reach 1.2K Tons and $2.9M in Value by 2035IndexBox has just published a new report: United Kingdom - Cotton (Carded Or Combed) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights. Driven by rising demand for cotton (carded or combed) in the UK, the market is expected to start…
- BiH FM meets with the Ambassador of the United Kingdom to BiHThe Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Elmedin Konaković, met with the Ambassador of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dawn McKen. The discussion focused on election…
- United Kingdom Lloyds House Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (0.1%) in OctoberAUD/USD hits a three-week low during the Asian session on Friday as the RBA’s dovish shift and a rout in equity markets weigh on the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, the recent slump in US bond yields to a two-month low keeps US Dollar…
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All growth & recession ›China’s government budget balance in 2026
-8.12%median
-10%-6%
Median -8.12%Middle half -8.41% – -7.74%
Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
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France’s government budget balance in 2026
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Italy’s government budget balance in 2026
-2.8%median
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Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
-1.82%median
-4%0%
Median -1.82%Middle half -2.21% – -1.53%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions