US government budget balance in 2026
-8.29%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -8.29%Middle half -8.8% – -7.77%
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Italy’s government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-2.8%median
-5%-1%
Median -2.8%Middle half -3.15% – -2.53%
How the odds have moved
Median: -2.8% on Oct 5, -2.8% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -4.5% of GDP | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above -4.0% of GDP | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above -3.5% of GDP | 89% | 85¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 251 | |
| Above -3.0% of GDP | 69% | 65¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 1.00 | |
| Above -2.5% of GDP | 22% | 18¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | ||
| Above -2.0% of GDP | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Above -1.5% of GDP | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Italy
Search ›- Monza vs Atalanta: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headBBC Italian Serie A Scores & Fixtures Italian Serie A Table - Position 1, 2, 3, 4 : UEFA Champions League
- Napoli vs Lazio: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headBBC Italian Serie A Scores & Fixtures Italian Serie A Table - Position 1, 2, 3, 4 : UEFA Champions League
- Parma vs. Bologna Live Stream of Italian Serie AArsenal secure a 2-1 victory over Slavia Praha in the UEFA Champions League! Noni Madueke opened the scoring just nine minutes into the match before Viktor Gyökeres doubled the lead, recording a goal and an assist in a DOMINANT first-half…
- Parma vs Bologna: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headBBC Italian Serie A Scores & Fixtures Italian Serie A Table - Position 1, 2, 3, 4 : UEFA Champions League
- Billboard Italy Women in Music 2026: All the Honorees RevealedThe third edition of the event will take place on Tuesday with an exclusive gala at Vesta Fiori Chiari in Milan. With the announcement of the Woman of the Year, the full lineup of honorees is now complete: Among this year’s new highlights…
- Genoa vs AC Milan: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headBBC Genoa v AC Milan Italian Serie A Scores & Fixtures Italian Serie A Table - Position 1, 2, 3, 4 : UEFA Champions League
- Inter Milan vs Como: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headBBC Inter Milan v Como Italian Serie A Scores & Fixtures Italian Serie A Table - Position 1, 2, 3, 4 : UEFA Champions League
- Mancini Adds Four More New Talents to Italy SquadYahoo Sports Roberto Mancini has selected four more potential rookies in his 31-man Italy squad to face Belgium and France in the UEFA Nations League. The Azzurri sit in second place in Group One after collecting seven points in the first…
- Italy squad reaction: New faces in attack are a no-brainer! VIDEOLorenzo Bettoni and Giancarlo Rinaldi are back with a new episode of the Football Italia Show to discuss and react to Roberto Mancini's latest Italy squad announcement. The Azzurri coach has named a 31-man squad for Italy's final two…
- Rapid transient uplift driven by active slab tear, southern Calabria, ItalyUplift rates change abruptly across active normal faults (black lines) and gradually along inclined structural ramps, changing from Marine terraces in southern Calabria have a mean burial age of 118.8 ± 8.7 ka, indicating uplift rates of A…
- Italy vs. South Africa - Nations Championship LIVE updates, as it happensSouth Africa and Italy face off in a Saturday afternoon clash in Turin in the Nations Championship. The Azzurri beat the Springboks in a 2016 clash, making rugby union history, and look to repeat that ...
- Watch CNBC's full interview with U.S. Ambassador to Italy Tilman FertittaCNBC Watch CNBC's full interview with U.S. Ambassador to Italy Tilman Fertitta
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All growth & recession ›China’s government budget balance in 2026
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions