Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
7,311high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 7,311.
- Reaches 4,500>99%
- Reaches 4,750>99%
Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
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How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
The odds
7.23median
120
Median 7.23
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.94 on Oct 20, 7.23 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 0 | 90% | ▲ 2 | $1.11 | 3.5K | ||
| ✓ Above 1 | 93% | ▼ 3 | $1.08 | 2.6K | ||
| Above 2 | 58% | ▼ 30 | 57¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 3.0K |
| Above 3 | 58% | ▼ 22 | 53¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 693 |
| Above 5 | 58% | 29¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 778 | |
| Above 7 | 51% | 3¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 763 | |
| Above 10 | 38% | 11¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 1.1K | |
| Above 15 | 38% | 12¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 3.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: bird flu, H5N1
Search ›- Bird flu spreads to Washington dairy farmsBird flu is hitting Washington dairy farms, and it's spreading fast. The Washington State Department of Agriculture confirmed the first detections in two Yakima County dairy herds in early October. On Oct. 26, the agency reported the…
- Bird Flu Confirmed in Two County FlocksBy John Todd | Rio Linda Online Backyard poultry owners in Rio Linda and Elverta are being urged to protect their birds after bird flu was confirmed in two Sacramento County backyard flocks this month. According to Sacramento County Public…
- Jury: Company must pay $808K after cat’s death from pet food tainted by bird fluPORTLAND, Ore. — An Oregon man whose cat died after eating pet food tainted with bird flu was awarded some scratch last week. A 12-person jury in Multnomah County ruled that Tim Hanson, of Portland, was entitled to damages after his…
- Bird flu hits western Iowa turkey flockBird flu has been detected in a Sac County commercial turkey flock in western Iowa. A case of highly pathogenic avian influenza has been detected in a commercial turkey flock of approximately 44,400 birds in Sac County, according to the…
- Bird flu raging on a Utah mink farm could spark a human pandemic, experts say. Officials won’t actThe first case of avian flu in mink was diagnosed in Utah this summer. The strain of bird flu that’s ripped through American barns for the last four years has killed two people who caught it from sick animals. But as far as anyone can…
- 1M Chicks Slaughtered in New Bird Flu OutbreakMarcy Kreiter | October 29, 2026 An Illinois commercial egg-laying facility slaughtered nearly 1 million birds to stem a bird flu outbreak, the USDA confirmed. KSDK-TV in St. Louis reported the outbreak was detected at Rose Acre Farms…
- Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water to remove Australian Antarctic Program expeditioners from sub-Antarctic island as H5 bird flu…The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) is temporarily withdrawing staff from Macquarie Island research station due to the psycho-social risk to expeditioners of a potential H5 avian influenza (bird…
- Bird Flu Here to Stay: New Zealand Must Adapt ResponseThe confirmation of Australia's first mainland death of a mammal from bird flu last week highlights New Zealand's challenge to manage the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus. Associate Professor in Animal Behaviour, University of Auckland…
- Bird flu reemerges in western WA, officials warn of statewide spreadBird flu has reemerged in western Washington following multiple reports of sick and dead birds. The Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) said it has received numerous reports from the west side of the state over the past…
- Bird Flu Hits California: What Are the Chances Of Catching It? Here's What You Need To KnowBird flu, or avian influenza, is a rare but serious disease that can spread from birds to humans under certain conditions. So far, most cases have been confirmed through direct contact with infected birds or other animals, contaminated…
- Indiana finds cases of bird flu in waterfowlHome » National News » Indiana finds cases of bird flu in waterfowl Bloomington, Indiana — The Indiana DNR has confirmed highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) as the cause of death for multiple geese in Hamilton County. Additionally…
- Bird Flu On Mink Farms: What It Means For Human HealthAn outbreak of bird flu on a mink farm in Utah is raising concerns about sparking a pandemic. First reported by ProPublica, the outbreak of H5N1, a highly pathogenic avian influenza A, has gone uncontrolled. This is reportedly because…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions