Measles cases in 2026?
7,628median
4,00011,000
Median 7,628Middle half 7,096 – 8,291
Install
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
The odds
7,311high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 7,311.
- Reaches 4,500>99%
- Reaches 4,750>99%
- Reaches 5,000>99%
- Reaches 5,50099%
- Reaches 6,00096%
- Reaches 6,50093%
- Reaches 7,00076%
- Reaches 7,50035%
Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
How the odds have moved
Reaches 6,500: 71% on Oct 20, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETReaches 6,500: 84% → 67%
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETReaches 6,500: 70% → 83%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ↑500 | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $103K | ||
| ✓ ↑1k | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $72.1K | ||
| ✓ ↑2k | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $51K | ||
| ✓ ↑3k | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $94.2K | ||
| ✓ ↑3.5k | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $15.8K | ||
| ✓ ↑4k | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $249K | ||
| ↑4.5k | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $5.3K | |
| ↑4.75k | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $67.2K | |
| ↑5k | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $347K | ||
| ↑5.5k | 99% | ▲ 1 | 99¢ | 100¢ | $5.5K | |
| ↑6k | 96% | 94¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | $33.4K | |
| ↑6.5k | 93% | ▼ 2 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1.07 | $13K |
| ↑7k | 76% | ▼ 4 | 71¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | $9.6K |
| ↑7.5k | 35% | ▼ 1 | 33¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | $233K |
| ↑10k | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | $6.5M | |
| ↑12.5k | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $362K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: measles
Search ›- Bucks County resident tests positive for measles after traveling to central PennsylvaniaNovember 9, 2026 / 2:58 PM EST / CBS Philadelphia A Bucks County, Pennsylvania, resident has tested positive for measles as the state's outbreak nears 1,500 cases, health officials announced Monday. The Bucks County Health Department said…
- Measles outbreak continues to grow; deaths reported in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New York this weekCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Measles…
- The CDC has recorded more than 5,000 measles cases this yearThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has now recorded 5,182 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 — the highest number of cases since 1991. Measles — which was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000 — is caused by a virus…
- Measles cases race past 5,000 nationwide: CDCWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
- Measles case confirmed in Shawano CountySHAWANO, Wis. (WBAY) - The Shawano-Menominee Counties Health Department says there’s a confirmed measles case in Shawano County. The health department is not releasing any information about the individual, such as their age or where they…
- Pennsylvania Confirms 6th Measles-Associated DeathThe Pennsylvania Department of Health confirmed on Nov. 4 that an unvaccinated resident of Jefferson County died after testing positive for measles, marking the sixth confirmed measles-associated death in Pennsylvania. The death has been…
- U.S. on verge of losing measles elimination status as number of cases growsThe United States is on the verge of losing its measles elimination status as cases top 5,000 nationwide for the first time in more than three decades. Pennsylvania, New York and Wisconsin have all reported measles-related deaths this…
- US-NEWS-MED-US-MEASLES-FILEPIC-GETA fact sheet for measles sits on a table at a mobile clinic offering free vaccinations on Feb. 6 in Spartanburg, South Carolina. Javascript is required to use this website. A fact sheet for measles sits on a table at a mobile clinic…
- Measles Exposure Alert Flagged at Pearson AirportOntario health officials are warning of a possible measles exposure for people who passed through Pearson Airport, after an unimmunized child recently tested positive for the virus after travelling internationally. Durham Region Health…
- Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR)Select any of the links below to jump to a specific topic. Measles is a highly contagious disease caused by the measles virus. Symptoms include high fever, cough, watery eyes, and full body rash. Infected people spread measles by coughing…
- As U.S. faces loss of measles-free status, health leaders rethink vaccine strategiesAt a meeting this week, CDC staffers and public health groups agreed vaccines must be a major part of containing measles. How will the agency respond under Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? BREAKING: Cornell faculty senate issues no confidence vote…
- Infant Dies in Wisconsin Measles Outbreak, State's First Measles Death Since 1990 as Cases Hit 35-Year HighMADISON, Wis. — An infant has died of measles in southwestern Wisconsin, state health officials said, the state's first measles death in more than three decades. The Wisconsin Department of Health Services said the coroner listed measles…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions