Pandemic in 2026?
2%chance▼ 1
Install
Next pandemic
The odds
40%Before 2028
- Before 202840%▲ 62
- Before 203018%
- Before 202916%
How the odds have moved
Before 2028: 13% on Oct 20, 40% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 9, 5 PM ETBefore 2028: 14% → 40%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 40% | ▲ 62 | 11¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 12.9K |
| Before 2030 | 18% | 18¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 2.5K | |
| Before 2029 | 16% | 16¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 5.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: outbreak, pandemic
Search ›- Measles outbreak continues to grow; deaths reported in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New York this weekCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Measles…
- AMC CEO says movie theater giant has finally 'recovered' from pandemic-era strugglesKenny Polcari discusses the historical S&P 500 performance following midterm elections. He predicts the stock market will be higher in 12 months, continuing a trend seen in every midterm cycle since World War II. AMC Entertainment said on…
- Human bird flu infection confirmed in India amid concern over avian flu outbreaks in U.S. farm animalsJune 12, 2024 / 10:29 AM EDT / CBS News India's first human avian flu case was confirmed in 2019. The cases in India involve a different bird flu virus than the one infecting animals and several people in the U.S., where it is the H5N1…
- Minnesota, Wisconsin see worst measles outbreak in decades, and more headlinesCBS News Minnesota is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WCCO-TV and channel 4, CBS News Minnesota offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Minnesota…
- Bird flu didn’t turn into a pandemic, but it never went away, eitherWashington state reported a bird flu death earlier this month in a person who had exposure to an infected dairy cow. In the spring of 2024, it felt like the U.S. was on the cusp of a biological disaster. A strain of bird flu, long…
- Infant dies in measles outbreak in southwest WisconsinNovember 5, 2026 / 2:38 PM EST / CBS Chicago An infant recently died of measles in an outbreak in southwestern Wisconsin, that state's Department of Health Services announced Thursday. This was the measles death reported in Wisconsin since…
- Don’t forget dental health during the pandemic"There really are no special precautions during this time. It's a matter of continuing with what the dental professional team has recommended all along," says Deanne Wallaert. (Credit: amirhosein esmaeili/Unsplash) Don’t neglect your…
- Will bat-borne Nipah virus be the next global pandemic?A recent outbreak in South India has renewed interest in Nipah virus, a disease with no vaccine or cure that generally spreads from bats or pigs to humans and kills nearly three-quarters of those infected. The virus, discovered 20 years…
- Acid-sensitive molecular changes contribute to the emergence of pandemic influenzaSt. Jude Children’s Research Hospital scientists have linked increased resistance of hemagglutinin protein to acidic pH with emergence of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic flu virus; finding may help spot future pandemic viruses. Memphis, Tennessee…
- Targeting Host Entry and Cholinergic Pathways Could Blunt Future Viral PandemicsA narrative review highlights how targeting shared viral entry enzymes, cholinergic anti-inflammatory signaling, and accessible antiseptics could mitigate future pandemic threats beyond vaccines alone. Article Title: Measures that could…
- Pandemic Care Barriers Explained Apparent Declines in Alberta Respiratory Illness CasesA qualitative study reveals that lower reported rates of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease during the pandemic stemmed from healthcare access barriers and delayed care-seeking rather than genuine declines in disease…
- Outbreak and sporadic illnesses found to be similarResearchers from the Interagency Food Safety Analytics Collaboration (IFSAC) said if examined characteristics are different, then the assumption of similar exposure pathways is less plausible. This would help assess the usefulness of…
Related markets
All outbreaks ›Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
1%chance
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
7,307high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 7,307.
- Reaches 4,500>99%
- Reaches 4,750>99%
Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
Measles cases in 2026?
7,611median
4,00011,000
Median 7,611Middle half 7,056 – 8,286
How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
7.23median
120
Median 7.23
Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year? (2026)
1%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions