Measles cases in 2026?

Kalshi Health › Outbreaks Closes Dec 31 · $4.4K today · $89K traded · $199K at stake · prices read 16 min ago

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The odds

7,611median
4,00011,000
Median 7,611Middle half 7,056 – 8,286

How the odds have moved

Median: 7,299 on Oct 20, 7,611 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Above 3000 99% ▼ 1 $1.01 80.2K
✓ Above 4000 99% ▼ 1 $1.01 432.1K
Above 5000 100% 99¢ 100
Above 6000 95% ▼ 1 94¢ 95¢ $1.05 316.3K
Above 7000 78% ▼ 3 75¢ 80¢ $1.25 12.1K
Above 8000 33% ▼ 1 32¢ 33¢ $3.03 191.9K
Above 9000 6% ▲ 1 2¢ 10¢ $10.00 2.0K
Above 10000 6% 5¢ 8¢ $12.50 189.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: measles

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  • Bucks County resident tests positive for measles after traveling to central PennsylvaniaCBS News · 6 h agoNovember 9, 2026 / 2:58 PM EST / CBS Philadelphia A Bucks County, Pennsylvania, resident has tested positive for measles as the state's outbreak nears 1,500 cases, health officials announced Monday. The Bucks County Health Department said…
  • Measles outbreak continues to grow; deaths reported in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New York this weekCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Measles…
  • The CDC has recorded more than 5,000 measles cases this yearThe Washington Post · 2 days agoThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has now recorded 5,182 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 — the highest number of cases since 1991. Measles — which was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000 — is caused by a virus…
  • Measles cases race past 5,000 nationwide: CDCWashington Examiner · 3 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
  • Measles case confirmed in Shawano County@WBAY · 10 h agoSHAWANO, Wis. (WBAY) - The Shawano-Menominee Counties Health Department says there’s a confirmed measles case in Shawano County. The health department is not releasing any information about the individual, such as their age or where they…
  • Pennsylvania Confirms 6th Measles-Associated DeathThe Epoch Times · 14 h agoThe Pennsylvania Department of Health confirmed on Nov. 4 that an unvaccinated resident of Jefferson County died after testing positive for measles, marking the sixth confirmed measles-associated death in Pennsylvania. The death has been…
  • U.S. on verge of losing measles elimination status as number of cases growsNBC News · 3 days agoThe United States is on the verge of losing its measles elimination status as cases top 5,000 nationwide for the first time in more than three decades. Pennsylvania, New York and Wisconsin have all reported measles-related deaths this…
  • US-NEWS-MED-US-MEASLES-FILEPIC-GETOmaha World-Herald · 9 h agoA fact sheet for measles sits on a table at a mobile clinic offering free vaccinations on Feb. 6 in Spartanburg, South Carolina. Javascript is required to use this website. A fact sheet for measles sits on a table at a mobile clinic…
  • Measles Exposure Alert Flagged at Pearson AirportOpen Jaw · 11 h agoOntario health officials are warning of a possible measles exposure for people who passed through Pearson Airport, after an unimmunized child recently tested positive for the virus after travelling internationally. Durham Region Health…
  • Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR)@WADeptHealth · 29 h agoSelect any of the links below to jump to a specific topic. Measles is a highly contagious disease caused by the measles virus. Symptoms include high fever, cough, watery eyes, and full body rash. Infected people spread measles by coughing…
  • As U.S. faces loss of measles-free status, health leaders rethink vaccine strategiesNBC News · 3 days agoAt a meeting this week, CDC staffers and public health groups agreed vaccines must be a major part of containing measles. How will the agency respond under Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? BREAKING: Cornell faculty senate issues no confidence vote…
  • Infant Dies in Wisconsin Measles Outbreak, State's First Measles Death Since 1990 as Cases Hit 35-Year HighInternational Business Times · 36 h agoMADISON, Wis. — An infant has died of measles in southwestern Wisconsin, state health officials said, the state's first measles death in more than three decades. The Wisconsin Department of Health Services said the coroner listed measles…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions