Hurricane Pena category?
5%Category 1 or above
06
Install
Hurricane Paulette category?
The odds
15%Category 1 or above
06
How the odds have moved
Category 1 or above: 15% on Oct 19, 15% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category 1 or above | 15% | 2¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 82.00 | |
| Category 2 or above | 3% | 1¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 342 | |
| Category 3 or above | 3% | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 220 | |
| Category 4 or above | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 220 | |
| Category 5 or above | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: hurricane, tropical storm, Hurricane Paulette
Search ›- Tropical Storm Vance Triggers Flash Floods in Los Cabos, Sweeping Vehicles into the SeaWithin spread beside the ouch sulky this wonderfully and as the well and where supply much hyena so tolerantly recast hawk darn woodpecker. LOS CABOS, Mexico – Heavy rains fueled by Tropical Storm Vance triggered flash floods in the Los…
- Tropical Storm Isaias Forces Shell, Chevron to Curb Gulf ProductionPublished Oct 8, 2026 4:58 am ET Shell and Chevron said on Wednesday they were curtailing offshore operations in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Isaias approached the region. Shell said it was evacuating all personnel and shutting in…
- Hurricane forecasters track disturbance in the western Atlantic late into 2026 seasonHurricane forecasters were tracking a disturbance in the western Atlantic Monday morning. An area of low pressure is likely to form a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in a few days along a weakening frontal boundary, National…
- Hurricane center forecasts potential Atlantic system could formThe tropical outlook Monday, Nov. 2, 2026. (National Hurricane Center/TNS) While tropical-storm-like weather battered Florida on Monday, the National Hurricane Center began forecasting a different system could form in the Atlantic with the…
- Lots of rain, no tropical activity expected as hurricane season nears endNov. 1 marks the last month of hurricane season. Like the previous day (the Halloween tropical outlook), the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, reports there is no tropical activity expected for the next seven days as of Sunday…
- Texas flood threat to wind down as Tropical Storm Vance sends moisture northWest Texas faces a risk of flash flooding on Friday, as tropical moisture streams into the state. A level 1 out of 4 flash flood threat is in effect. TEXAS - Moisture from Tropical Depression Vance is streaming north into Texas, bringing…
- New area to watch designated as historically quiet Atlantic hurricane season nears its endAs the Atlantic hurricane season nears its end, a new Area to Watch has been designated, with a 30% chance of tropical development over the next seven days. This has been a historically quiet season, with just 10 named storms and one major…
- Subtropical storm could develop in the Atlantic this weekA subtropical storm could form in the Atlantic this week, after two weeks without activity in the basin. If it develops, it would take the next name on the list, Kyle. It may be November, and it may have been quiet since Subtropical Storm…
- Hurricanes—Super StormsThese three monster storms were part of an unmatched run of Atlantic hurricanes—15 in all. With a total of 27 named tropical storms, 2005 was the first year meteorologists exhausted their preseason list of 21 Atlantic cyclone names and had…
- Remnants of Tropical Storm Vance bring rain to parts of New Mexico on Thursday, FridayKOAT We will enjoy another quiet autumn day on Thursday After a cool morning start with only a few passing clouds, sky conditions stay generally sunny most of the day Highs across the Albuquerque metro top out a few degrees above average…
- Tropical activity not expected on Halloween as hurricane season nears endHappy Halloween! For the Saturday, Oct. 31, tropical outlook, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, reports that there is no tropical activity expected for the next seven days. That's good news for trick-or-treaters in Florida…
- Eying the Caribbean for tropical activity early this monthNOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM WATCH: FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin shares an update for the 2026 hurricane season as the Caribbean is being monitored for possible tropical development for early November. FWX · Aired Today · 1m 55s…
Related markets
All hurricanes & storms ›Hurricane Rene category?
6%Category 1 or above
07
What named storms will be hurricanes in the Atlantic this year? (Atlantic in 2026)
11%Kyle
- Kyle11%▲ 6
- Fay3%▲ 1
- Leah2%▼ 1
14 more
- Marco1%
- Dolly1%▼ 1
- Edouard1%▼ 1
- Gonzalo1%▼ 1
- Hanna1%▼ 2
- Josephine1%▼ 1
- Nana1%
- Omar1%
- Paulette1%▼ 1
- Rene1%▼ 1
- Sally1%
- Teddy1%
- Vicky1%
- Wilfred1%
Atlantic Tropical Storms (Dec 2026)
9.58median
818
Median 9.58Middle half 9.20 – 9.95
How many Eastern Pacific named storms will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
20.7median
1828
Median 20.7
Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?
14%Above 10
835
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions