Will Cindy Hyde-Smith concede? (2026 Mississippi Senate race)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Jan 4, 2027 · $550 today · $1.1K traded · $811 at stake · prices read 31 min ago

The odds

Nov 16, 2026even chance by

Before Nov 11, 202613%▼ 9
Before Nov 14, 202641%▲ 5
Before Nov 21, 202676%▲ 6
Before Jan 4, 202793%▼ 3

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 11, 2026: 11% on Nov 8, 13% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Nov 9, 8 PM ETBefore Nov 11, 2026: 22% → 13%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Nov 11, 2026	13%	▼ 9		22¢	$4.55	1.0K
Before Nov 14, 2026	41%	▲ 5	38¢	44¢	$2.27	1.1K
Before Nov 21, 2026	76%	▲ 6	65¢	86¢	$1.16	335
Before Jan 4, 2027	93%	▼ 3	89¢	96¢	$1.04	283

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Mississippi Senate

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‘Where is Cindy Hyde-Smith?’: In a nail-biter Senate race, the incumbent stays out of view in MississippiCNN · 15 h agoAs the Mississippi Senate race still remains too close to call, Democrat Scott Colom and GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith have taken completely different approaches towards the public. While Colom has appeared at local universities, a Black-owned…
Mississippi Senate latest: Scott Colom's lead over Cindy Hyde-Smith tops 2,500 votes as key deadlines loomYahoo News · 15 h agoOutstanding ballots are due by Tuesday, Nov. 10. County clerks have until Nov. 13 to certify the election. And Colom's lead has widened almost every day since Election Day, when it stood at just 65 votes. Even though 97% of the vote is in…
Mississippi Senate election: Democrat Scott Colom narrowly leads Republican Cindy Hyde-SmithCNBC · 4 days agoMississippi's uncalled Senate election could provide one of the biggest shocks in a midterm election cycle already chock full of stunning Republican defeats. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, the GOP incumbent, is trailing Democratic nominee Scott…
Where Is Cindy Hyde-Smith?Political Wire · 14 h ago“As the Mississippi Senate race still remains too close to call, Democrat Scott Colom and GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith have taken completely different approaches towards the public,” CNN reports. “Since Election Day, Colom has held at least…
Mississippi Senate ballot deadline looms, as Democrat’s lead remains steadyThe Washington Post · 9 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Scott Colom's lead…
Colom vs. Hyde-Smith: Mississippi Senate Race Update as Key Deadline NearsNewsweek · 7 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 12:45 PM EST Nov 09, 2026 at 12:48 PM EST Mississippi counties must certify and submit their election results by Friday, a key deadline to the still-undecided Senate race between Democrat Scott Colom and Republican…
Scott Colom vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith: How Mississippi Recount Would WorkNewsweek · 4 days agoNov 05, 2026 at 02:24 PM EST Nov 05, 2026 at 03:24 PM EST Less than 2,000 votes separate Democrat Scott Colom and Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in the race for a Mississippi U.S. Senate seat, and questions are mounting about…
Why Mississippi Voters Have a Beef with Cindy Hyde-SmithNational Review · 4 days agoNational Review
Razor-tight Mississippi Senate race sparks ballot battle - could there be a recount?BBC News · 3 days agoThe Democrats hold a narrow lead over the Republicans in the US Senate race in Mississippi, with both sides in a dispute over the counting of the remaining votes which could decide the outcome. Lawyers for each campaign are preparing for a…
Colom says Hyde-Smith 'doesn't have' path to victory in Mississippi Senate raceCNN · 3 days agoColom says Hyde-Smith ‘doesn’t have’ path to victory in Mississippi Senate race CNN Colom says Hyde-Smith ‘doesn’t have’ path to victory in Mississippi Senate race The Democratic candidate for Senate in Mississippi, Scott Colom, says…
Mississippi Senate: Longshot Ty Pinkins says he aimed to spoil Hyde-Smith, boost Colom voteCNBC · 3 days agoLongshot Mississippi Senate candidate Ty Pinkins at first wanted to win — but says he stayed in to spoil. Pinkins told a local TV station he remained in the race after an April poll showed he had no chance to boost Democratic nominee Scott…
Scott Colom’s lead increases to over 2,000 votes ahead of Cindy Hyde-Smith in Senate race@WLBT · 3 days agoWLBT Scott Colom’s lead increases to over 2,000 votes ahead of Cindy Hyde-Smith in Senate race Colom meets Jackson voters as Senate ballot count continues Groups raise concerns about public view of affidavit ballot count in 3 Mississippi…

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AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
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IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
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IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
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AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCindy Hyde-Smith

Trading closesJan 4, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.1K (2,750 contracts)

Today$550

This week$1.1K

At stake$811

In the news17 headlines today, 274 this week

Followed here sinceNov 6, 2026

The rules

If Cindy Hyde-Smith has made a statement conceding defeat in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race before Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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