Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 4, 11 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 19% → 3%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 31, 11 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 27% → 12%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 29, 11 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 11% → 4%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Before Dec 1, 2026
2%
▼ 2
1¢
2¢
$50.00
900
Before Jan 1, 2027
5%
▼ 1
5¢
5¢
$20.83
437.7K
Before Jan 1, 2028
17%
▲ 11
12¢
22¢
$4.55
1.0K
Before Jan 20, 2029
41%
▼ 1
40¢
41¢
$2.44
230.6K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
How Stephen Miller appointment shows Trump hasn’t learned his lesson on immigrationthe Guardian · 3 days agoUS voters repudiated mass deportation campaign, but choice of new chief of staff shows Trump doesn’t care On Tuesday, voters resoundingly rebuked Donald Trump and his brutal mass deportation campaign that sent military tanks and masked…
BREAKING: Trump Names Stephen Miller as Chief of StaffZeteo · 3 days agoZeteo BREAKING: Trump Names Stephen Miller as Chief of Staff Read Zeteo’s recent, deeply-reported profile of Miller, a man many blame for the GOP’s catastrophic 2026 election outcomes. Editor’s note: Donald Trump on Friday named Stephen…
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NYC pied-à-terre tax rollout can proceed, appeals court rulesSmart Cities Dive · 4 days agoThe decision reversed a lower court’s ruling that the initial notices sent to homeowners were flawed. The pied-à-terre tax is expected to impact around 13,000 secondary homes, including one-, two- and three-family homes valued at $5…
OPINION: Doomsday Plan: Indicator or not, prepping is just common senseRichmond Observer · 5 days agoIt's all over the Internet, of course. People are worried and wondering what's up (including my sister-in-law, who called my special attention to it). From a random look at stories about it, here's International Business Times lede: "The…
How Trump could interfere in US midterm electionsCNBCTV18 · 6 days agoState officials who run US elections are braced for possible intervention by President Donald Trump's administration in Tuesday's midterms -- fearing federal authorities could disrupt voting, challenge ballot counts or try to block…
How Trump And His Administration May Interfere In US Midterm ElectionsNDTV · 6 days agoState officials who run US elections are braced for possible intervention by President Donald Trump's administration in Tuesday's midterms -- fearing federal authorities could disrupt voting, challenge ballot counts or try to block…
Fearing federal authorities: How Trump could interfere in US midterm electionsRTL Today · 6 days agoState officials who run US elections are braced for possible intervention by President Donald Trump's administration in Tuesday's midterms -- fearing federal authorities could disrupt voting, challenge ballot counts or try to block…
No, the president cannot declare martial law to interfere with electionsProtect Democracy · 7 days agoThe president does not have the authority to declare martial law. No provision in the Constitution grants it and no federal law authorizes it. Still, some in the president’s orbit have begun suggesting that if the midterm election results…
White House insider warns of Trump's 'palpable' cognitive declineAlternet.org · 8 days agoA former Donald Trump lawyer says the 80-year-old’s cognitive decline is not impossible to miss, pointing to his deteriorating speech patterns and increasingly bizarre behavior since his return to the White House. Ty Cobb, who served as…
Rational Security: The “Not So Super Tuesday” EditionDefault · 7 days agoLawfare This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Executive Editor Natalie Orpett and Senior Editors Michael Feinberg and Molly Roberts to talk through the week’s big election news stories, including: - “Full Metal Ballot.” For…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions