How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 1 · $20.6K today · $40.8K traded · $37.4K at stake · prices read just now

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The odds

4.80median
-0.505.50
Median 4.80Middle half 4.32 – 5.15

How the odds have moved

Median: 3.84 on Nov 2, 4.80 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
<1% 1¢ $100.00 103
1 <1% 1¢ $100.00 6.5K
2 2% ▲ 1 4¢ $25.00 5.9K
3 5% ▼ 3 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 13.6K
4 20% ▼ 27 19¢ 22¢ $4.55 20.3K
5 or more 71% ▲ 33 71¢ 74¢ $1.35 49.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mar-a-Lago

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Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

36%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth36%▼ 6
  • Will Scharf31%▼ 11
  • Amy Gleason28%▼ 6
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 10
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%▼ 1
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 2
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Steven Cheung18%▼ 16
  • Sergio Gor17%▼ 8
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 1
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee12%▲ 1
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Tom Homan11%
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 5
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%
  • Tilman Fertitta7%
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 1

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions