Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Feb 1, 2027 · $57K today · $1.7M traded · $425K at stake · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

99%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 21% on Oct 20, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	99%		98¢	99¢	$1.01	1.7M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Midterms

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Jon Meacham on the midterms and America's "better angels"CBS News · 35 h agoReflecting on this week's historic midterm elections, in which voters were asked to weigh in on whether our nation will maintain the ideals of equality, dignity, fair play, and the rule of law, historian Jon Meacham says that Americans…
Trump Shares Posts Questioning Midterm Election ResultsNewsweek · 2 days agoNov 07, 2026 at 01:28 PM EST President Donald Trump shared social media posts Saturday questioning the scale of Democrats’ midterm election gains, days after saying he was “absolutely willing” to accept the results of an election that cost…
Oregon midterm elections results 2026BBC News · 3 days agoBBC
Israel took a beating in the US midtermsthe Guardian · 3 days agoIn a reversal of longstanding assumptions, strong criticism of Israel’s actions may have helped put candidates over the top In some ways, El-Sayed was an unlikely candidate. At 34, in his first run for elected office, he set his sights…
Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm lossesFox News · 2 days agoRon Johnson, R-Wisc., joins 'Saturday in America' to discuss President Donald Trump's comments to Senate Republicans and a new bid for Senate minority leader. Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm losses Ron Johnson, R-Wisc…
Democrats won the midterms. Republicans may have won something bigger.The Washington Post · 38 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Social Security and…
Latino voters help drive Democratic victories in Texas midtermsCBS News · 2 days agoCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Latino voters help drive…
‘SNL’ Cold Open: James Talarico Crashes Trump’s Midterm PostmortemRolling Stone · 45 h agoJames Talarico, fresh off his victory in Texas’ Senate race, popped up on Saturday Night Live, interrupting a Trump-themed cold open in which the president was licking his wounds after midterm voters delivered a historic repudiation of his…
Kansas U.S. House Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News · 3 days agoThe expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information ... After a historic wave of…
Texas Cities Pull Back Cooperation With ICE After Midterm ElectionsNewsweek · 47 h agoNov 07, 2026 at 04:41 PM EST Two cities in Texas are taking steps to restrict how local law enforcement interacts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) following the midterm elections, led by an executive order in Houston and…
Hispanic voters were key in powering Democratic midterm winsThe Washington Post · 2 days agoLatino voters were key in delivering wins to Democrats on Tuesday as majority-Hispanic counties that voted for President Donald Trump by wide margins in 2024 flipped blue. Counties where Latino citizens make up a majority of the voting-age…
Illinois House District 6 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsNBC News · 2 days agoThe Illinois House District 6 race has shifted 20 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See the county-by-county breakdown below. Shift to Democrats Shift to ... After a historic wave of Democratic victories…

Related markets

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Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None

None98%
AK2%
All 7<1%▼ 3

125 more

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate winner? (2026)

98%Democratic party

Democratic party98%▲ 1
Republican party2%▼ 1

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer88%▼ 2
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 2
Brian Schatz1%▼ 1

10 more

Chris Murphy1%
Mark Warner<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Raphael Warnock<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Tammy Baldwin<1%
Jon Ossoff<1%
Ruben Gallego<1%
Jacky Rosen<1%

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
Brian Schatz2%▼ 1

8 more

John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate Election Winner

99%Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola99%
Sen. Dan Sullivan1%▼ 1
Ann Diener<1%

4 more

Dustin Darden<1%
Richard Grayson<1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1%
David Leslie<1%

Elections › Senate

Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)

99%Scott Colom

Scott Colom99%
Cindy Hyde-Smith2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States House of Representatives, United States Senate

Trading closesFeb 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.7M (1,727,309 contracts)

Today$57K

This week$757K

At stake$425K

In the news569 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions