Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 6, 11 PM ETBefore Apr 1, 2027: 48% → 33%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027
5%
▼ 2
4¢
6¢
$16.67
880.1K
Before Apr 1, 2027
37%
▼ 3
36¢
38¢
$2.63
6.4K
Before Jul 1, 2027
55%
▼ 1
51¢
58¢
$1.72
6.1K
Before Oct 1, 2027
68%
▼ 2
65¢
71¢
$1.41
2.7K
Before Jan 1, 2028
69%
68¢
69¢
$1.45
144.2K
Before Jan 20, 2029
81%
▼ 2
78¢
83¢
$1.20
88.7K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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Four people hurt in Lower Moreland Township fireCBS News · 11 days agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Four people…
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Canavan to make lower house tilt to outrun One NationThe West Australian · 8 days agoNationals leader Matt Canavan will contest a seat in the House of Representatives at the next federal election to avoid a tricky battle against One Nation.
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions