Will Musk deposit SpaceX shares into 10M Trump Accounts? (Before 2028)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.9K traded · $1.3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

42%chance▲ 2

How the odds have moved

Yes: 35% on Oct 22, 42% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 5, 9 PM ET80% → 75%
  2. Oct 29, 9 PM ET72% → 43%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 42% ▲ 2 43¢ 67¢ $1.49 4.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: SpaceX, M Trump Accounts, Musk

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Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

35%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth35%▼ 8
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 11
  • Amy Gleason28%▼ 5
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 10
  • Howard Lutnick26%▲ 6
  • Christopher Landau25%
  • Kash Patel22%▼ 2
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%▼ 1
  • Dan Caine19%▼ 4
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 1
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 2
  • Steven Cheung18%▼ 13
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 2
  • Sergio Gor17%▼ 8
  • Brooke Rollins15%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▼ 2
  • Jamieson Greer13%▲ 1
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Steve Witkoff12%▼ 6
  • Tom Homan11%▲ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 5
  • Mike Huckabee10%▼ 1
  • Rodney Scott10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%
  • Tilman Fertitta7%
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 1

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions