Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 8, 11 PM ETNo other person: 31% → 25%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
No other person
25%
24¢
25¢
$4.00
19.7K
Dan Driscoll
23%
▼ 4
22¢
24¢
$4.17
6.8K
Ron DeSantis
9%
▼ 2
7¢
11¢
$9.09
16.9K
Steve Feinberg
5%
▼ 1
4¢
7¢
$14.49
1.4K
Joni Ernst
4%
2¢
6¢
$16.39
1.1K
Mike Rogers
3%
▼ 1
1¢
4¢
$25.64
1.7K
Mike Pompeo
2%
▼ 1
1¢
3¢
$29.41
2.1K
Elbridge Colby
2%
1¢
4¢
$25.64
2.2K
Mike Waltz
2%
▼ 1
0¢
3¢
$34.48
3.2K
Wesley Hunt
1%
▼ 2
0¢
2¢
$50.00
1.2K
Tom Cotton
1%
0¢
2¢
$66.67
3.0K
Trae Stephens
1%
0¢
2¢
$66.67
261
Christopher Miller
1%
0¢
2¢
$66.67
496
Bill Hagerty
1%
0¢
2¢
$66.67
32.00
Mike Gallagher
1%
0¢
2¢
$66.67
170
Keith Kellogg
1%
0¢
1¢
74.00
Tulsi Gabbard
<1%
0¢
1¢
963
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Secretary of Defense, Dan Driscoll, Ron DeSantis
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis plans another run at White HouseThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Florida’s status as…
As MAGA Falters, Ron DeSantis Steps Out of the ShadowsNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 11:39 AM EST Florida’s outgoing governor Ron DeSantis has been fiercely criticizing Republicans since the GOP’s shellacking in the midterm elections, raising questions about whether the offensive is the opening gambit of…
We were not immune to this wave: Ron DeSantisFox News · 5 days agoFox News We were not immune to this wave: Ron DeSantis Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., discusses how the state weathered the Democratic wave in the midterm elections on 'The Ingraham Angle.' Bold conservative policies and crucial ballot…
Ron DeSantis warns incoming Democratic Senate majority will block Trump Cabinet picksFox News · 5 days agoFox News Ron DeSantis warns incoming Democratic Senate majority will block Trump Cabinet picks Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warns that an incoming Democratic Senate majority means no Supreme Court Justice or major cabinet officials will be…
Gov Ron DeSantis: Texas results will hurt the GOP going forwardFox News · 5 days agoFox News Gov Ron DeSantis: Texas results will hurt the GOP going forward Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis discusses how his state avoided a Democratic electoral wave and lays out where the GOP should go after the midterms on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’
How Ron DeSantis transformed swing-state Florida into the GOP’s best hopeNew York Post · 5 days agoTuesday’s blue tsunami upturned the political order nationwide, even in unlikely places like Texas — but Florida somehow held a solid red line. Gov.-elect Byron Donalds, US Sen. Ashley Moody, Attorney General James Uthmeier and state CFO…
Ron DeSantis Calls GOP Midterm Losses ‘An Extinction Level Event’Newsweek · 5 days agoNewsweek - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World News The Most Important Election of Our Lives, Until the Next One w/ Astead Herndon Midterm Election Night, Senate Final Polls, Supreme Court…
Ron DeSantis Issues Dire Prediction for GOP After Stunning Midterm DefeatNewsweek · 5 days agoNov 04, 2026 at 03:03 PM EST Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said Republicans faced the “worst-case scenario” in Tuesday's midterm elections, when Democrats rode a blue tsunami to flip control of the House and Senate amid challenging…
Ron DeSantis Calls Out Republicans over ‘Crony Capitalism’Breitbart · 2 days agoFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) called out Republicans who push crony capitalist policies, explaining that it is part of the reason young people see socialism favorably. The post Ron DeSantis Calls Out Republicans over ‘Crony Capitalism’…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions