Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 6, 11 PM ETPete Hegseth: 62% → 69%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Nov 4, 11 PM ETPete Hegseth: 60% → 73%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Pete Hegseth
86%
▲ 12
85¢
88¢
$1.14
12.5K
Kash Patel
8%
▼ 12
8¢
9¢
$11.11
10.9K
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
2¢
9¢
$11.11
8.6K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Defense Secretary and FBI Director, RFK Jr, HHS Secretary
Cheryl Hines shares RFK Jr.'s eating habits when it comes to sweets and snacksFox News · 16 days agoActress Cheryl Hines discusses her husband's disciplined approach to food and RFK Jr.'s reaction when she eats potato chips in front of him. Cheryl Hines shares RFK Jr.'s eating habits when it comes to sweets and snacks Actress Cheryl…
Cheryl Hines says she draws the line at one of RFK Jr's dining habitsFox News · 17 days agoActress Cheryl Hines shares how her husband Robert F. Kennedy Jr. asks her to pack food in her handbag before going out to eat — and her reaction to it. Cheryl Hines says she draws the line at one of RFK Jr's dining habits Actress Cheryl…
The food industry is done taking RFK Jr.’s abusePOLITICO · 15 days agoProcessed food manufacturers say there's a conflict between the Health secretary’s plans and Trump’s desire to rebuild factory towns. The National Association of Manufacturers has said Kennedy's Make America Healthy Again food policies…
NIH’s new vaccine injury center has broad goals beyond RFK Jr.’s focus on shotsSTAT · 15 days agoWASHINGTON — Earlier this month at a private event, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other top federal health officials announced a new National Institutes of Health center that would focus on patients with vaccine injuries, drawing fresh…
Fast Takes: RFK Jr.’s not radical enough, stop the all-consuming fraud blob and moreNew York Post · 15 days agoReflecting on news of “left-leaning American ex-pats who fled to Europe to escape Trump 2.0” only to find live there bought “dramatically different” then expected and plot “a move back home,” The Wall Street Journal’s Matthew Hennessey…
RFK Jr. visiting Michigan to celebrate Nutrition Education PledgeCBS News · 17 days agoOctober 23, 2026 / 11:19 PM EDT / CBS Detroit Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is expected to be in Michigan next week to celebrate the signing of the Nutrition Education Pledge by dozens of hospitals. The event is…
Exit of RFK Jr. ally widens rift in GOP tentPOLITICO · 17 days agoCalley Means' departure is the latest sign that Kennedy’s supporters are unhappy with how the White House is treating them. 10/23/2026 2:52 PM EDT Calley Means brought President Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. together. The Kennedy…
He left the CDC to fight RFK Jr. But was it better to fight from within?The Washington Post · 16 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Demetre Daskalakis…
RFK Jr.'s top adviser quits, MAHA reelsPOLITICO · 18 days agoDelivered daily by 10 a.m., Pulse examines the latest news in health care politics and policy. By CARMEN PAUN, KELLY HOOPER and SOPHIE GARDNER 10/23/2026 10:00 AM EDT With help from Alice Miranda Ollstein MAHA DECRIES MEANS’ EXIT — Members…
RFK Jr.’s vaccine injury clinic could damage NIH hospital, board warnsArs Technica · 17 days ago“Trust is slow to build and quick to lose,” board chair Jack Leslie said. “The space in which this protocol will be conducted, the vaccine evaluation center inside the clinical center, has been in existence for decades,” Green said. Like…
Judge temporarily blocks RFK Jr.'s efforts to reshape childhood vaccine policyABC News · 16 days agoKennedy reduced the number of recommended shots from 17 to 11. A Massachusetts judge ruled on Monday in favor of medical organizations in their litigation against Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over several…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions