Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 4, 11 PM ETAnna Kelly: 28% → 21%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Anna Kelly
14%
▼ 3
13¢
14¢
$7.14
774.9K
Danielle Alvarez
13%
12¢
13¢
$7.69
269.7K
Scott Jennings
4%
▼ 1
3¢
4¢
$25.00
634.4K
Ben Ferguson
3%
▼ 1
2¢
3¢
$33.33
268.6K
Kari Lake
2%
1¢
2¢
$50.00
264.3K
Margo Martin
1%
▼ 1
2¢
$50.00
125.9K
Maria Bartiromo
1%
▼ 1
2¢
$50.00
301.4K
Alina Habba
1%
1¢
$100.00
185.1K
Steven Cheung
1%
1¢
$100.00
238.7K
Jason Miller
1%
1¢
$100.00
56.5K
Sage Steele
1%
1¢
$100.00
14.7K
Tucker Carlson
1%
1¢
$100.00
4.0K
No new person
1%
▼ 1
1¢
$100.00
357.8K
Liz Huston
1%
1¢
$100.00
4.4K
Natalie Harp
1%
1¢
$100.00
53.7K
Rachel Campos-Duffy
1%
1¢
$100.00
53.1K
Roma Daravi
1%
▼ 1
1¢
$100.00
56.1K
Spencer Pratt
1%
1¢
$100.00
39.4K
Lara Trump
1%
1¢
$100.00
31.3K
Elizabeth Pipko
1%
▼ 1
1¢
$100.00
321.5K
Laura Loomer
1%
1¢
$100.00
294.9K
Jayme Franklin
1%
1¢
$100.00
5.3K
Erika Kirk
1%
1¢
$100.00
77.3K
Matthew Boyle
1%
1¢
$100.00
19.0K
Taylor Budowich
1%
1¢
$100.00
9.9K
Katie Miller
1%
▼ 1
1¢
$100.00
248.5K
Monica Crowley
1%
1¢
$100.00
130.8K
Tricia McLaughlin
1%
▼ 1
1¢
$100.00
147.1K
Kush Desai
1%
1¢
$100.00
6.6K
Ari Fleischer
1%
1¢
$100.00
23.4K
Benny Johnson
1%
1¢
$100.00
30.3K
Matt Walsh
1%
1¢
$100.00
4.3K
Ben Shapiro
1%
1¢
$100.00
34.2K
Jack Posobiec
1%
1¢
$100.00
11.3K
Mike Cernovich
1%
1¢
$100.00
868
Dan Bongino
1%
1¢
$100.00
7.0K
Kayleigh McEnany
1%
1¢
$100.00
27.1K
Harrison Fields
1%
1¢
$100.00
28.4K
Taylor Rogers
1%
1¢
$100.00
73.0K
Hogan Gidley
1%
1¢
$100.00
24.5K
Katie Pavlich
1%
1¢
$100.00
73.7K
Lauren Bis
1%
1¢
$100.00
20.2K
Pat Adams
1%
1¢
$100.00
3.1K
Kaelan Dorr
1%
1¢
$100.00
11.1K
Vanessa Broussard
1%
1¢
$100.00
6.5K
Cara Castronuova
1%
1¢
$100.00
4.8K
Mark Levin
1%
1¢
$100.00
8.3K
Logan Paul
1%
1¢
$100.00
4.1K
Jake Paul
1%
1¢
$100.00
4.8K
Eric Daugherty
1%
1¢
$100.00
537
Erin Elmore Scavino
1%
1¢
$100.00
36.2K
Tulsi Gabbard
1%
1¢
$100.00
7.8K
Beni Rae Harmony
1%
▼ 1
1¢
$100.00
30.4K
Peter Doocy
1%
1¢
$100.00
18.1K
Sean Spicer
1%
1¢
$100.00
8.3K
Karoline Leavitt
1%
1¢
$100.00
139.9K
Marco Rubio
1%
1¢
$100.00
99.7K
Kat Timpf
1%
1¢
$100.00
9.1K
Kaylee McGhee White
1%
▼ 1
1¢
$100.00
115.5K
George Santos
1%
1¢
$100.00
13.1K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Press Secretary, Anna Kelly, Danielle Alvarez
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions