Who will be the next Secretary of the Army? (Before Jan 1, 2030)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 8, 2030 · $9 today · $2.8K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

47%Adam Telle
  • Adam Telle47%▼ 2
  • Sean Parnell15%
  • Michael Obadal6%▲ 1
  • Brian Mast6%▲ 1
  • Brent Ingraham5%
  • W. Jordan Gillis5%▲ 1
  • Charles Young III5%
  • Derrick Anderson5%
  • Marc Andersen3%

How the odds have moved

Adam Telle: 43% on Oct 20, 47% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Adam Telle 47% ▼ 2 45¢ 49¢ $2.04 3.8K
Sean Parnell 15% 13¢ 17¢ $5.88 5.3K
Michael Obadal 6% ▲ 1 2¢ 9¢ $11.11 213
Brian Mast 6% ▲ 1 2¢ 9¢ $11.11 582
Brent Ingraham 5% 1¢ 9¢ $11.11 45.00
W. Jordan Gillis 5% ▲ 1 1¢ 9¢ $11.11 40.00
Charles Young III 5% 1¢ 9¢ $11.11 10.00
Derrick Anderson 5% 9¢ $11.11 2.5K
Marc Andersen 3% 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 74.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Secretary, Army, Adam Telle

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  • SEAN PARNELL: The military needs more than recruiting ads — it needs to be seenFox News · 7 days agoSecretary of War Pete Hegseth discusses foreign relations under the Trump administration. Three years ago, Washington had written off a generation. Too soft, too unfit, too disconnected to serve. In 2023, the Army, Navy and Air Force all…
  • Northport Native, Acting Army Secretary Adam Telle To Headline Chamber EventTuscaloosa · 7 days agoTUSCALOOSA, AL — Northport native Adam Telle, who was appointed acting secretary of the U.S. Army in September, has been announced as the keynote speaker for a Chamber of Commerce of West Alabama's Federal Affairs Briefing. The Chamber in…
  • OpenAI hires former U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll for national security roleCNBC · 7 days agoOpenAI has hired former U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll as senior counselor for national security modernization, a newly created role at the company. Driscoll will focus on how artificial intelligence can be used to strengthen U.S…
  • OpenAI Hires Former Army Secretary Close to VanceElets eGov · 7 days agoHover a headline to pause it · drag the rail to scrub · ← → to step · Space to pause OpenAI has recruited former U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll as a senior adviser and is privately circulating AI policy memos to prospective 2028…
  • Nebraska Secretary of State Election Live Results 2026AP News · 7 days agoAP News Nebraska Secretary of State results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists…
  • Defense Secretary Fires 3-Star General From Pentagon for Allegedly Leaking InformationThe Presidential Prayer Team · 9 days agoDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth terminated the Joint Staff’s Directorate for Strategy, Plans and Policy (J5) Director, Army Lt. General Brett Sylvia, this past week. The former commander of the 101st Airborne Division is under investigation…
  • OpenAI Taps Ex-Army Secretary Driscoll for Defense PushThe Tech Buzz · 7 days agoUnlimited access to in-depth analysis, exclusive reports, and premium tools for tech professionals. OpenAI Taps Ex-Army Secretary Driscoll for Defense Push ChatGPT maker creates national security role as AI race hits government sector…
  • Rhode Island Secretary of State Election Live Results 2026AP News · 7 days agoAP News Rhode Island Secretary of State results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists…
  • OpenAI hires former US Army secretary for national security roleKuwait Times · 7 days agoSAN FRANCISCO: OpenAI has appointed former US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to a newly created role focused on advancing the use of artificial intelligence (AI) i... OpenAI hires former US Army secretary for national security role SAN…
  • Former Army Secretary Dan Driscoll Joins OpenAI as Senior CounselorUnite.AI · 7 days agoOpenAI announced on November 2, 2026, that former Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will join as Senior Counselor for National Security Modernization, a newly created position focused on national security, cybersecurity and cooperation…
  • Secretary of State Election Live Results 2026 - NBC NewsNBC News · 7 days agoSecretary of State Election Live Results 2026 NBC News 2026 Secretary of State Results All Secretary of State Races 2026 State Election Results How to watch election night: Key races, poll closing times, bellwether campaigns and more NBC…
  • Vermont Secretary of State Election Live Results 2026AP News · 7 days agoAP News Vermont Secretary of State results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election night. Our reporters, election analysts and graphics journalists…

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 13
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 3
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 3
  • Marco Rubio16%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
  • Chris Wright14%▼ 1
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%
  • Tom Homan11%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee11%▼ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 2
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz9%▼ 9
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 3

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions