Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $2K traded · $501 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

Embed

The odds

15%Houston
  • Houston15%
  • Detroit14%▲ 1
  • San Francisco8%
  • Chicago7%
  • Portland5%

How the odds have moved

Houston: 14% on Oct 20, 15% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Houston 15% 13¢ 17¢ $5.88 1.4K
Detroit 14% ▲ 1 13¢ 14¢ $7.14 4.4K
San Francisco 8% 7¢ 10¢ $10.00 7.2K
Chicago 7% 6¢ 7¢ $14.08 3.4K
Portland 5% 3¢ 7¢ $14.93 7.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: National Guard, San Francisco

Search ›

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

36%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth36%▼ 6
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 11
  • Amy Gleason28%▼ 5
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 10
  • Howard Lutnick26%▲ 6
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Kash Patel22%▼ 2
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper19%▼ 1
  • Dan Caine19%▼ 3
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 3
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 2
  • Steven Cheung18%▼ 14
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 2
  • Sergio Gor17%▼ 8
  • Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 1
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%▼ 2
  • John Ratcliffe14%
  • Jamieson Greer13%▲ 2
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Tom Homan12%▲ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 6
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Mike Huckabee10%▼ 1
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%
  • Tilman Fertitta7%
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 1

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions