Marco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State? (Before Jan 2029)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31, 2028 · $3K today · $38.3K traded · $25.3K at stake · prices read 17 min ago

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The odds

Jun 15, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 202717%
  • Before Apr 1, 202734%▼ 2
  • Before Jul 1, 202754%▼ 2
  • Before Oct 1, 202766%▼ 2
  • Before Jan 1, 202872%▼ 7
  • Before Jul 1, 202880%▼ 6
  • Before Jan 1, 202992%▲ 2

How the odds have moved

Before Jul 1, 2027: 45% on Oct 22, 54% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027 17% 16¢ 17¢ $5.88 71.5K
Before Apr 1, 2027 34% ▼ 2 33¢ 35¢ $2.86 52.8K
Before Jul 1, 2027 54% ▼ 2 52¢ 55¢ $1.82 9.8K
Before Oct 1, 2027 66% ▼ 2 64¢ 68¢ $1.47 3.5K
Before Jan 1, 2028 72% ▼ 7 69¢ 75¢ $1.33 705
Before Jul 1, 2028 80% ▼ 6 76¢ 84¢ $1.19 435
Before Jan 1, 2029 92% ▲ 2 88¢ 95¢ $1.05 180

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Secretary of State, Marco Rubio

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Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf31%▼ 11
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%▼ 1
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 2
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins17%
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Mehmet Oz13%▼ 1
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee12%▲ 1
  • Tom Homan11%
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 4
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Scott Bessent8%▼ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 2

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions