How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)
56.5median
4559
Median 56.5Middle half 56.2 – 56.8
Install
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?
The odds
58.4median
4062
Median 58.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 51.8 on Oct 31, 58.4 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 42 | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 51.00 | |
| At least 44 | 96% | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | ||
| At least 46 | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | ||
| At least 47 | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | ||
| At least 48 | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 87.00 | |
| At least 49 | 93% | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | ||
| At least 50 | 93% | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 1.3K | |
| At least 51 | 91% | 90¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 1.0K | |
| At least 52 | 87% | 86¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 752 | |
| At least 53 | 82% | ▼ 2 | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 1.8K |
| At least 54 | 78% | ▼ 1 | 77¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 1.9K |
| At least 55 | 76% | 75¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 23.8K | |
| At least 56 | 71% | 70¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 2.1K | |
| At least 58 | 55% | 54¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 3.6K | |
| At least 60 | 29% | ▲ 2 | 26¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 4.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
Search ›- Bombshell: Democrat endorses Republican in key Senate raceIt's Election Day, and Ruthless breaks down the explosive fallout from Haley Stevens endorsing Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed, exposing the growing divide within the Democratic Party. Bombshell: Democrat endorses Republican in key Senate…
- Will Michigan Democrats maintain control of state Senate in November midterm?November 3, 2026 / 6:15 AM EST / CBS Detroit With Michigan voters casting their ballots in the November midterm election, they are not only selecting leaders to represent them in the U.S. House and Senate but also choosing representatives…
- Democrat Haley Stevens endorses Republican in Michigan U.S. Senate raceCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Democrat Haley Stevens…
- Last-minute polls show Democrats leading in Ohio Senate and gubernatorial racesA new New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats with an edge in Ohio's races for senator and governor. Nina Turner, former Ohio Democratic state senator and co-chair of Bernie Sanders' 2020 presidential campaign, joins CBS News to discuss…
- Trump praises Democrat Haley Stevens' endorsement of GOP Senate candidate Mike RogersMichigan Senate race endorsement shifts political dynamics as Representative Haley Stevens backs Republican Mike Rogers. President Donald Trump praises the crossover vote, highlighting growing party division. 'The Big Money Show' panel…
- Prediction market traders now see nearly 75% chance of Democrats winning the SenateMomentum for Democrats is building on Kalshi, with traders on Monday seeing a 74% chance of the party winning control of the Senate — the highest odds seen for the party on the platform since the market first opened. The higher odds come…
- Why did a Democrat endorse a Republican in Michigan senate race? - The LatestDemocratic congresswoman Haley Stevens has endorsed the Republican candidate for the Senate after a spat with her party’s own candidate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed. The endorsement stunned Stevens’s Democrat colleagues, with one calling it…
- Democrat Haley Stevens appears with Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers amid rift with Senate nominee Abdul El-SayedNovember 1, 2026 / 12:11 PM EST / CBS News Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens appeared with Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers Sunday amid a rift with Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed that has come front and center in the final…
- Michigan Senate race heats up as infighting erupts among DemocratsFox News senior national correspondent Rich Edson reports on the pivotal Michigan Senate race as Election Day looms. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., discusses Democrats' midterm strategy and more on 'Fox News Sunday.' Michigan Senate race heats…
- Democrat Haley Stevens Endorses Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate RaceStevens cited a growing rift between her and Abdul El-Sayed, as well as the nominee’s association with extremist political streamer Hasan Piker.
- In a polarized country, Democrats have a tougher path to the SenateBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Split delegations in…
Related markets
All senate ›Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
98%None
- None98%
- AK2%
- All 7<1%▼ 3
125 more
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
- AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
- AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
- AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
- AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
- AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
- AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
- AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
- AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
- AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
- AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
- AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
- AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
- IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
- IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
- IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
- IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
- KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
- AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
- AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
- AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
- AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
- AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
- AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
- AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
- AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
- AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
- AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
- AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
- AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
- AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
- AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
- AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
- AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
- AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
- AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
- AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
- AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
- IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
- IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
- IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
- IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
- IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
- IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
- IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
- IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
- IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
- IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
- KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
- KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
Alaska Senate winner? (2026)
98%Democratic party
- Democratic party98%▲ 1
- Republican party2%▼ 1
Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)
88%Chuck Schumer
- Chuck Schumer88%▼ 2
- Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 2
- Brian Schatz1%▼ 1
10 more
- Chris Murphy1%
- Mark Warner<1%
- Cory Booker<1%
- Raphael Warnock<1%
- Amy Klobuchar<1%
- Patty Murray<1%
- Tammy Baldwin<1%
- Jon Ossoff<1%
- Ruben Gallego<1%
- Jacky Rosen<1%
Next Senate Majority Leader?
89%Chuck Schumer
- Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
- Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
- Brian Schatz2%▼ 1
8 more
- John Thune<1%
- John Barrasso<1%
- Steve Daines<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- Amy Klobuchar<1%
- Patty Murray<1%
- Cory Booker<1%
- Mark Kelly<1%
Alaska Senate Election Winner
99%Mary Peltola
- Mary Peltola99%
- Sen. Dan Sullivan1%▼ 1
- Ann Diener<1%
4 more
- Dustin Darden<1%
- Richard Grayson<1%
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1%
- David Leslie<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions