How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the 2028 election?

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Feb 1, 2029 · $135 today · $2.1K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 74 min ago

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The odds

39%At least 44
4262

How the odds have moved

At least 44: 95% on Oct 31, 39% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
At least 44 39% 38¢ 39¢ $2.56
At least 46 33% ▼ 2 30¢ 36¢ $2.78 787
At least 47 27% 26¢ 27¢ $3.70 2.1K
At least 48 23% 22¢ 23¢ $4.35 811
At least 49 19% ▼ 1 17¢ 21¢ $4.76 564
At least 50 18% ▼ 1 14¢ 21¢ $4.76 2.3K
At least 51 15% 10¢ 20¢ $5.00
At least 52 12% ▼ 3 10¢ 13¢ $7.69 2.6K
At least 53 12% ▼ 2 10¢ 13¢ $7.69 526
At least 54 12% ▼ 5 10¢ 13¢ $7.69 74.00
At least 55 12% ▼ 5 10¢ 13¢ $7.69 145
At least 56 8% ▲ 1 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 522
At least 58 6% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67 3.7K
At least 60 5% ▲ 1 4¢ 5¢ $20.00 305

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate

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  • Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm lossesFox News · 2 days agoRon Johnson, R-Wisc., joins 'Saturday in America' to discuss President Donald Trump's comments to Senate Republicans and a new bid for Senate minority leader. Trump calls out Senate Republicans after midterm losses Ron Johnson, R-Wisc…
  • Trump declares Alaska Senate race ‘OVER’ and claims Republican wonNew York Post · 2 days agoPresident Trump declared the Senate race in Alaska “over” and his favored candidate Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) the winner — even though the outcome of his race against former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) was far from certain. Trump has…
  • River North bar hosts "Senate Hunks" lookalike contestCBS News · 14 h agoStardust bar in River North hosted a "Senate Hunks" lookalike contes Sunday afternoon for Chicagoans who most closely resemble winners from the 2026 midterm elections including Abdul El-Sayed, John Ossoff and James Talarico. River North…
  • Exclusive / Senate’s post-election drama escalates quicklysemafor.com · 16 h agoCongress’ lame-duck session starts with a bang on Monday, as Senate Republicans debate their future after last week’s shellacking and Democrats face their first vote on a permitting reform bill that is cleaving them. Meanwhile, the Senate…
  • Too early to think about the 2028 Senate map? No!The Washington Post · 16 h agoDemocrats are optimistic about expanding their Senate majority in two years and are already eyeing the possibility of a 60-seat supermajority. caucus with Democrats. The 2026 Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi have not been called…
  • How the midterms shook up Senate delegations for 2027CNN · 17 h agoDemocrats’ red-state dreams came true in the midterm elections. What feels like a watershed moment for those normally red states also reverses a recent trend of polarization on Capitol Hill. Heading into Election Day, there were only four…
  • Angie Nixon reflects on Senate runCBS News · 36 h agoCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am
  • Senate advances Trump-backed bipartisan bill to speed critical infrastructure projectsCNBC · 2 h agoThe Senate on Monday advanced a bipartisan bill that aims to significantly speed up the approval process for critical U.S. infrastructure projects. The vote, 73-25, allows the Senate to begin debate on the Bipartisan American Affordability…
  • Mississippi Senate ballot deadline looms, as Democrat’s lead remains steadyThe Washington Post · 9 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Scott Colom's lead…
  • GOP Senate Seats Most at Risk in 2028 After Democrats’ Blue WaveNewsweek · 77 min agoNov 09, 2026 at 06:14 PM EST Nov 09, 2026 at 06:15 PM EST As newly elected members of Congress arrived on Capitol Hill for orientation on Monday, the results of the midterms are already reshaping the political landscape, including which…
  • Some House and Senate races remain uncalled. What we knowNPR · 24 h agoSeveral House and Senate races are still uncalled, so when might we know the outcomes? Some House and Senate races remain uncalled. What we know Several House and Senate races are still uncalled, so when might we know the outcomes?
  • Colom vs. Hyde-Smith: Mississippi Senate Race Update as Key Deadline NearsNewsweek · 3 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 12:45 PM EST Nov 09, 2026 at 12:48 PM EST Mississippi counties must certify and submit their election results by Friday, a key deadline to the still-undecided Senate race between Democrat Scott Colom and Republican…

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All senate ›
Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None
  • None98%
  • AK2%
  • All 7<1%▼ 3
125 more
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
  • AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer
  • Chuck Schumer88%▼ 2
  • Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 2
  • Brian Schatz1%▼ 1
10 more
  • Chris Murphy1%
  • Mark Warner<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Raphael Warnock<1%
  • Amy Klobuchar<1%
  • Patty Murray<1%
  • Tammy Baldwin<1%
  • Jon Ossoff<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Jacky Rosen<1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2028 · $27K today
Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer
  • Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
  • Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
  • Brian Schatz2%▼ 1
8 more
  • John Thune<1%
  • John Barrasso<1%
  • Steve Daines<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Amy Klobuchar<1%
  • Patty Murray<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Mark Kelly<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions