The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
10% or above
82%
▲ 1
78¢
86¢
$1.16
2.00
20% or above
47%
4¢
96¢
$1.04
41.00
30% or above
24%
2¢
98¢
$1.02
67.00
40% or above
16%
11¢
20¢
$5.00
50% or above
10%
5¢
14¢
$7.14
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The art of the tariffPOLITICO · 14 days agoDelivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy. 10/26/2026 10:00 AM EDT With help from Daniel Desrochers, Megan Messerly and Sue Allen — President Donald Trump is making tariffs…
US, Canada ‘very close’ to tariff deal: WHNew York Post · 14 days agoThe US and Canada are “very close” to settling their tariff standoff, according to the White House. “The negotiations have picked up; they’re gathering steam,” said Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, to…
Canada trade deal 'very close' as PresidentTrump adjusts tariffsFox Business · 14 days agoNegotiations for a new Canada trade deal are gathering steam as President Donald Trump considers adjustments to import taxes. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett expresses optimism about reaching a final agreement…
Trump touts tariffs as Obama warns consumers pay the priceFox News · 14 days agoPresident Donald Trump campaigns on his trade agenda, claiming tariffs are bringing investments like a new Audi factory to Georgia. Former President Barack Obama counters, warning Ohio voters that tariffs contribute to inflation. Trump…
Trump tariffs bring jobs as Barack Obama warns of rising costsFox Business · 14 days agoCampaigning on his trade agenda, President Donald Trump highlights a new Audi factory investment in Georgia ahead of the midterm elections. Former President Barack Obama pushes back at an Ohio rally, claiming Trump tariffs raise consumer…
US to remove some Canadian tariffs ahead of electionssemafor.com · 15 days agoThe US announced plans to remove tariffs on certain Canadian products after an embattled Republican senator in Maine lobbied for the move as the White House looks to bolster its candidates ahead of Nov. 3. The US announced plans to remove…
White House official addresses inflation and tariff concernsFox News · 15 days agoNational Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett joins 'The Sunday Briefing' to discuss the impact of the administration's economic policies, inflation and tariffs. White House official addresses inflation and tariff concerns National…
President Trump announces upcoming Canada trade deal, lifts certain tariffsFox Business · 15 days agoVogel Group Managing Principal Samir Kapadia analyzes President Donald Trump's announcement of an upcoming trade deal with Canada. The discussion highlights the decision to exempt certain Canadian products from fifty percent tariffs to…
‘It’s worth it to me’: Michigan voter weighs in on Trump’s tariffscnn.com · 15 days agoCNN's Arlette Saenz spoke with Michigan voters at rallies held by former President Barack Obama in Detroit and President Donald Trump in Port Huron about the economy and its influence on their voting decisions. Former President Barack…
How Trump’s forever war and tariffs could sink the GOPThe Washington Post · 15 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Foreign policy rarely…
Audi defends plans for a $4 billion Georgia plant amid VW restructuring, tariffsCNBC · 15 days agoDETROIT — Audi's CEO defended the carmaker's plans for a new $4 billion plant in Georgia on Sunday, calling it a business decision aimed at growing sales and reducing exposure to U.S. tariffs. The plant, set to be Audi's first in the U.S…
Brazil Awaits US Tariff Offer After Lula WinThe Rio Times · 15 days agoThe official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET). Open the live results → Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come · Brazil election poll…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions