The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
At least 2
95%
▲ 5
94¢
96¢
$1.04
4.0K
At least 3
78%
▲ 4
75¢
80¢
$1.25
734
At least 4
60%
▲ 3
57¢
63¢
$1.59
152
At least 5
47%
▲ 4
45¢
49¢
$2.04
1.6K
At least 6
28%
▼ 3
27¢
28¢
$3.57
4.3K
At least 7
19%
▼ 4
16¢
21¢
$4.76
694
At least 8
14%
▼ 1
13¢
14¢
$7.14
3.00
At least 9
8%
▼ 6
7¢
8¢
$12.50
11.0K
At least 10
5%
▼ 4
4¢
5¢
$20.00
17.5K
At least 12
4%
▼ 3
3¢
5¢
$20.00
8.3K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Trump: New Iran attacks "quite unlikely"Axios · 4 h agoPresident Trump said Monday that a renewed military campaign against Iran is "quite unlikely" and "doesn't seem to be necessary."Why it matters: Trump stopped short of saying the war was over, but his comments on Truth Social and at an…
Russia and Ukraine Keep Ignoring Donald TrumpNewsweek · 4 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 12:27 PM EST Russia and Ukraine traded strikes on each other's energy infrastructure into Monday, targeting sites President Donald Trump had decreed last month—without Kyiv and Moscow's agreement—to be off limits. The…
Democrats threaten investigations into several Trump officialsFox News · 3 h agoFormer Deputy Assistant Attorney General John Yoo analyzes Democrats' threats to investigate officials in President Donald Trump's administration on 'The Will Cain Show.' Yoo weighs in on the ... Democrats threaten investigations into…
The Odds: Another Trump Impeachmentcnn.com · 11 h agoCNN News Central's John Berman and Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten examine what polling and prediction markets reveal about the likelihood of another Trump impeachment effort once Democrats take control of Congress in January. The Odds…
Oil drops as Trump signals restraint with IranFox Business · 6 h ago'The Big Money Show' debates President Donald Trump's strategy regarding the conflict in Iran as he signals restraint and the impact of the war and gas prices on the midterm elections. Oil drops as Trump signals restraint with Iran 'The…
Trump Administration Expands Federal Effort to Combat Drone ThreatsNewsweek · 3 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 03:41 PM EST The announcement by the Department of Transportation (DOT) on Monday establishes an interagency process for evaluating and deploying technology that can detect, track, disable or take control of unauthorized…
Trump says FBI is investigating Nvidia CEO Jensen HuangCBS News · 3 h agoPresident Trump said Monday that the FBI is looking into Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang over allegations Huang was the target of a Chinese intelligence effort. CBS News' Olivia Rinaldi reports and Ian Duncan, tech policy reporter at the…
Danielle Alvarez Surges to Favorite for Trump Press SecretaryNewsweek · 4 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 12:10 PM EST Former senior adviser to President Donald Trump, Danielle Alvarez, has emerged as the front-runner on the prediction market Kalshi to become the next White House press secretary. As of Monday morning, Alvarez…
Trump casts doubt on Democrats’ historic midterm winsThe Washington Post · 8 h agoNearly a week after Democrats decisively took back the House and Senate majorities in the midterms, President Donald Trump is casting doubt on the results. “Does anybody really believe that this ‘Election’ was honest. How could the Polls…
Lauren Boebert, Trump Ally, Loses Colorado House Race, CNN ProjectsNewsweek · 3 h agoNov 09, 2026 at 03:29 PM EST Nov 09, 2026 at 03:44 PM EST Republican incumbent Representative and longtime Trump ally Lauren Boebert is projected to lose her reelection bid for Colorado's 4th Congressional District to Democratic challenger…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions