Who will Trump pardon? (Before Jan 21, 2029)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 21, 2029 · $941 today · $218K traded · $106K at stake · prices read 18 min ago

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The odds

75%Donald Trump Jr.
  • Donald Trump Jr.75%▲ 2
  • Jared Kushner71%
  • Eric Trump69%▲ 2
  • Donald Trump68%▲ 5
  • Pete Hegseth68%▲ 2
  • Elon Musk66%▲ 1
  • Todd Blanche60%▲ 1
  • Susie Wiles60%▼ 2
  • Scott Bessent59%
  • Barron Trump59%▲ 3
  • Keonne Rodriguez43%▼ 1
  • Elizabeth Holmes42%▼ 1
40 more
  • Torence Hatch41%
  • Pete Rose41%▲ 16
  • JD Vance41%▼ 2
  • Pam Bondi40%▼ 1
  • Bill Hwang40%
  • Steve Bannon39%▲ 1
  • Robin Smith37%
  • Prakazrel Michel37%
  • Eric Adams36%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio36%
  • Ghislaine Maxwell34%▲ 1
  • Tim Leissner34%▼ 1
  • Jho Low33%
  • Sam Bankman-Fried30%
  • Julian Assange30%▲ 1
  • Martin Shkreli28%
  • Larry Householder28%▼ 1
  • Sean Combs28%
  • Edward Snowden28%
  • Derek Chauvin26%
  • Kisean Anderson26%
  • Bob Menendez25%▲ 2
  • Justin Sun25%
  • Joe Giudice23%
  • Do Kwon22%
  • Tou Thao20%
  • Joseph Maldonado19%
  • Matt Borges16%
  • Leon Stanton14%
  • Brian Cole Jr.14%
  • Safaree Samuels14%
  • Daniel Hale13%
  • Alex Mashinsky11%
  • Jeffery Williams9%
  • Sebastian Telfair9%
  • Jose Muyet9%
  • Ty Garbin8%
  • Roger Ver6%
  • DeAndre Way6%
  • Hunter Biden4%

How the odds have moved

Donald Trump Jr.: 63% on Oct 20, 75% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Donald Trump Jr. 75% ▲ 2 73¢ 76¢ $1.32 22.7K
Jared Kushner 71% 70¢ 72¢ $1.39 12.4K
Eric Trump 69% ▲ 2 66¢ 72¢ $1.39 13.5K
Donald Trump 68% ▲ 5 64¢ 71¢ $1.41 70.1K
Pete Hegseth 68% ▲ 2 66¢ 69¢ $1.45 8.2K
Elon Musk 66% ▲ 1 65¢ 67¢ $1.49 10.4K
Todd Blanche 60% ▲ 1 59¢ 61¢ $1.64 5.2K
Susie Wiles 60% ▼ 2 57¢ 62¢ $1.61 5.6K
Scott Bessent 59% 56¢ 62¢ $1.61 5.9K
Barron Trump 59% ▲ 3 57¢ 60¢ $1.67 72.5K
Keonne Rodriguez 43% ▼ 1 39¢ 47¢ $2.13 2.3K
Elizabeth Holmes 42% ▼ 1 38¢ 45¢ $2.22 1.7K
Torence Hatch 41% 39¢ 42¢ $2.38 9.8K
Pete Rose 41% ▲ 16 37¢ 44¢ $2.27 5.3K
JD Vance 41% ▼ 2 40¢ 41¢ $2.44 4.9K
Pam Bondi 40% ▼ 1 36¢ 44¢ $2.27 3.2K
Bill Hwang 40% 35¢ 44¢ $2.27 295
Steve Bannon 39% ▲ 1 36¢ 41¢ $2.44 8.9K
Robin Smith 37% 33¢ 41¢ $2.44 3.2K
Prakazrel Michel 37% 34¢ 39¢ $2.56 5.9K
Eric Adams 36% ▼ 1 35¢ 36¢ $2.78 3.4K
Marco Rubio 36% 33¢ 38¢ $2.63 6.1K
Ghislaine Maxwell 34% ▲ 1 32¢ 36¢ $2.78 36.2K
Tim Leissner 34% ▼ 1 31¢ 37¢ $2.70 6.7K
Jho Low 33% 31¢ 34¢ $2.94 1.3K
Sam Bankman-Fried 30% 28¢ 32¢ $3.13 17.8K
Julian Assange 30% ▲ 1 28¢ 32¢ $3.13 4.8K
Martin Shkreli 28% 24¢ 33¢ $3.03 2.5K
Larry Householder 28% ▼ 1 24¢ 31¢ $3.23 9.4K
Sean Combs 28% 26¢ 29¢ $3.45 41.6K
Edward Snowden 28% 27¢ 28¢ $3.57 17.2K
Derek Chauvin 26% 23¢ 29¢ $3.45 6.8K
Kisean Anderson 26% 22¢ 30¢ $3.33 1.8K
Bob Menendez 25% ▲ 2 24¢ 26¢ $3.85 4.4K
Justin Sun 25% 23¢ 26¢ $3.85 1.8K
Joe Giudice 23% 18¢ 27¢ $3.70 499
Do Kwon 22% 17¢ 26¢ $3.85 1.2K
Tou Thao 20% 16¢ 24¢ $4.17 698
Joseph Maldonado 19% 15¢ 22¢ $4.55 887
Matt Borges 16% 12¢ 19¢ $5.26 1.6K
Leon Stanton 14% 9¢ 19¢ $5.26 1.6K
Brian Cole Jr. 14% 12¢ 16¢ $6.25 6.1K
Safaree Samuels 14% 9¢ 18¢ $5.56 1.0K
Daniel Hale 13% 9¢ 16¢ $6.25 1.2K
Alex Mashinsky 11% 8¢ 13¢ $7.69 7.6K
Jeffery Williams 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69 1.3K
Sebastian Telfair 9% 5¢ 12¢ $8.33 400
Jose Muyet 9% 5¢ 12¢ $8.33 1.4K
Ty Garbin 8% 6¢ 10¢ $10.00 5.8K
Roger Ver 6% 4¢ 8¢ $12.50 6.2K
DeAndre Way 6% 4¢ 7¢ $14.49 1.2K
Hunter Biden 4% 2¢ 7¢ $14.49 2.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Eric Trump

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All trump administration ›
Politics › Trump administration

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

37%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth37%▼ 5
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 13
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 9
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Amy Gleason27%▼ 7
  • Christopher Landau26%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick25%▲ 5
  • Kash Patel23%
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%
  • Dan Caine20%▼ 3
  • Steven Cheung19%▼ 17
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 4
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 3
  • Sergio Gor18%▼ 7
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 3
  • Marco Rubio16%▼ 1
  • Brooke Rollins16%▼ 1
  • Chris Wright14%▼ 1
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▲ 3
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%▼ 4
  • Steve Witkoff13%▼ 5
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Jamieson Greer12%
  • Tom Homan11%▲ 1
  • Mike Huckabee11%▼ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 2
  • Rodney Scott10%
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz9%▼ 9
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%▲ 1
  • Tilman Fertitta8%▲ 2
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 3
Politics › Trump administration

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions