Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 9, 5 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 28% → 18%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Nov 5, 9 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 34% → 26%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Before Sep 1, 2026
1%
$100.00
5.1K
Before Jan 1, 2027
18%
▼ 12
15¢
20¢
$5.00
23.0K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Democrat Jessica Bichler defeats Senate Majority Leader Michael LeeCarolina Journal · 6 days agoDemocrat Jessica Bichler defeated Republican Senate Majority Leader Michael Lee in Senate District 7, flipping one of the chamber’s key toss-up seats in New Hanover County. The John Locke Foundation’s 2026 Civitas Partisan Index rated the…
Inside John Thune's push to save the GOP's Senate majorityCBS News · 10 days agoSenate Majority Leader John Thune is making the case for Republicans to keep control of the Senate as the party faces mounting headwinds ahead of the midterms. He's balancing the push to advance President Trump's agenda with the need for…
John Thune Has Some Bad News for Those of You Who Hate Changing Your Clocksredstate.com · 7 days agoAmericans who loathe the twice-yearly time change might not want to let their clock-changing muscles waste away just yet. According to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, legislation that would allow states to decide for themselves whether…
Dems flips yet another Senate seat in Trump country amid sweeping GOP upsetsFox News · 6 days agoThe Fox News Decision Desk projects that Democrat Josh Turek will win Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, flipping a Republican-held seat as the GOP fights to retain control of the chamber. Turek defeated Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the…
Thune plans to run for Republican minority leader after Dem's midterm takeoverFox News · 6 days agoThe ‘FOX News Democracy 26’ panel discusses what the GOP takeaways should be and how Democrats might work with President Donald Trump. FIRST ON FOX: A source close to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital that…
Inside John Thune’s push to save the GOP’s Senate majority (Video)Social News XYZ · 10 days agoSenate Majority Leader John Thune is making the case for Republicans to keep control of the Senate as the party faces mounting headwinds ahead of the midterms. He's balancing the push to advance President Trump's agenda with the need for…
Republican Mike Rounds wins reelection to U.S. Senate from South DakotaSports · 6 days agomyMotherLode.com Republican incumbent Mike Rounds won election Wednesday to the U.S Senate representing South Dakota, defeating independent candidate Brian Bengs Roundsâ victory secures him a third Senate term He was backed by President…
Feldman tapped for expanded Senate majority leader role in AnnapolisBethesda Magazine · 10 days agoPlus: Public health professional in line for Gaithersburg City Council seat; Jawando continues to outraise, outspend Wells Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore City) on Thursday announced new leadership appointments for the…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions