Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor? (Before 2027)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $3K traded · $859 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

4%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 4% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	4%		2¢	5¢	$21.28	84.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Fed chair, Federal Reserve chair, Powell

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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Just Issued a 6-Word Warning That Could Spell Disaster for AI Stocks24/7 Wall St. · 2 days agoTwo AI stocks lost nearly half their value in a month while Microsoft barely moved. The split has less to do with chips than with one question every data center builder now has to answer, and rising rates are forcing… On October 28, Fed…
Swearing-in ceremony for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin WarshThe Lufkin Daily News · 5 days agoThe Lufkin Daily News U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas attends a swearing-in ceremony for a new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 22, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein - Two…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh set to face new headaches with Democrats in control: ‘Got no support’New York Post · 5 days agoDemocrats’ sweeping midterm victory, and particularly their coming control of the US Senate, strengthen the Federal Reserve against President Trump’s efforts to meddle with it, with the Senate’s control over appointments a major guardrail…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Is Planning to Break 45 Years of Precedent With a Stunning Change to Monetary Policy -- It Could Rattle Wall Street for Years to ComeThe Motley Fool · 4 days agoWarsh has been advocating for reform at the Federal Reserve for years now. When Kevin Warsh became the new chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors earlier this year, he made it clear he wanted to reform the agency, which he has…
Fed chair’s new claim to fame: His racehorse Deterministic won a $2 million raceThe Washington Post · 7 days agoThe Washington Post Deterministic, a 5-year-old horse that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh owns a piece of, won the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky, on Saturday. Wall Street spends a lot of time betting on what…
Powell and Phillips star as Bradford put seven past MarineBBC Sport · 2 days agoNick Powell and Adam Phillips both score a brace as League One Bradford City beat National League North side Marine 7-0 in the first round of the FA Cup. WATCH MORE: FA Cup first round highlights Powell and Phillips star as Bradford put…
New Zealand's central bank just made a grave error—Fed chair Kevin Warsh should learn from itmint · 6 days agoThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand, closely watched because of its status as a pioneer of inflation targeting, has blundered. However, the mistake need not be fatal and might even teach the world a lesson. By forgoing an interest-rate hike…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Just Drove a Dagger Through Wall Street's AI-Driven Rally With 6 Blunt WordsThe Motley Fool · 7 days agoIf you think artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are immune to rising interest rates, you’ll be sorely mistaken. For the better part of the last four years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.41%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.51%), and Nasdaq…
Hannah PowellFitness Volt · 3 days agoWomen's 49 kg, July 2022 Hannah Powell is a weightlifter, born in 1992. The results below cover 14 competitions from 2009 to 2022. The latest result came in the women's 49 kg class, at the 2022 Commonwealth Games. No Olympic or World…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's New Plan Could Change How Often US Borrowers See Interest Rate Relief@IBTimesUK · 6 days agoThe central bank will continue holding eight meetings annually, but one meeting in 2027 and two in 2028 are expected to focus exclusively on monetary policy strategy, without scheduled interest rate votes. This would reduce the number of…
Kevin Warsh Says AI Investment Is Not Immune to 4% RatesBitcoin Foundation · 5 days agoKevin Warsh AI stock market comments link AI investment to borrowing costs after the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4%, challenging rate-proof claims. On Oct. 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh tied the cost of borrowing straight to the AI…
Elizabeth Warren Plans Bank Hearings as Senate Banking Chair@analyticsinme · 3 days agoElizabeth Warren is expected to lead the Senate Banking Committee in January, bringing new scrutiny to Wall Street, the Trump administration, and tech companies. The Massachusetts Democrat plans to pursue housing affordability measures…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCNN, Fox News, MSNBC

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$3K (84,507 contracts)

At stake$859

In the news3 headlines today, 21 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions