Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Jan 1, 2028 · $2 today · $3.5K traded · $2.5K at stake · prices read 36 min ago

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The odds

18%Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Jan 1, 20273%
Before Jul 1, 202714%
Before Jan 1, 202818%

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 4% on Oct 20, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Sep 1, 2026	1%			$100.00	7.3K
Before Jan 1, 2027	3%	2¢	4¢	$25.00	5.1K
Before Jul 1, 2027	14%	12¢	16¢	$6.25	12.1K
Before Jan 1, 2028	18%	14¢	21¢	$4.76	9.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, Chair

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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh set to face new headaches with Democrats in control: ‘Got no support’New York Post · 5 days agoDemocrats’ sweeping midterm victory, and particularly their coming control of the US Senate, strengthen the Federal Reserve against President Trump’s efforts to meddle with it, with the Senate’s control over appointments a major guardrail…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Just Drove a Dagger Through Wall Street's AI-Driven Rally With 6 Blunt WordsThe Motley Fool · 7 days agoIf you think artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are immune to rising interest rates, you’ll be sorely mistaken. For the better part of the last four years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.41%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.51%), and Nasdaq…
New Zealand's central bank just made a grave error—Fed chair Kevin Warsh should learn from itmint · 6 days agoThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand, closely watched because of its status as a pioneer of inflation targeting, has blundered. However, the mistake need not be fatal and might even teach the world a lesson. By forgoing an interest-rate hike…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's New Plan Could Change How Often US Borrowers See Interest Rate Relief@IBTimesUK · 6 days agoThe central bank will continue holding eight meetings annually, but one meeting in 2027 and two in 2028 are expected to focus exclusively on monetary policy strategy, without scheduled interest rate votes. This would reduce the number of…
Mixed Signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Spark Debate on U.S. Monetary PolicySSBCrack News · 8 days agoHome » Business » Mixed Signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Spark Debate on U.S. Monetary Policy In a surprising turn, despite rising inflation rates, Warsh chose not to endorse another rate hike last week. His lack of clarity regarding…
These 9 Words From Kevin Warsh About Interest Rates Should Worry Every Investor24/7 Wall St. · 7 days agoFed Chair Kevin Warsh used nine words at a press conference that quietly redefined how investors should measure borrowing cost risk, and most shareholders missed the warning entirely. Investors often treat Federal Reserve meetings as the…
Who Has to Leave the Federal Reserve Board NextRealClearMarkets · 6 days agoRealClearMarkets Who Has to Leave the Federal Reserve Board Next
Minneapolis Fed’s Glaubke receives Federal Reserve System’s Taylor Awardminneapolisfed.org · 6 days agoGlaubke joined the Minneapolis Fed in 2023 as a project manager in SRC. In his work with the Stress Testing Program, Glaubke coordinates regulatory projects as part of annual stress testing updates and facilitates collaboration between…
Kevin Warsh Offered a Warning on Inflation. Here's What History Says Is Coming Next.The Motley Fool · 8 days agoFederal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh holds things closer to the vest than his predecessors did. However, he has consistently reinforced a strong message since his first press conference in June. Warsh has reiterated on several occasions that…
Federal Reserve Rate Setting: Bankers Love It, But The People Don’t@AmericanThinker · 6 days agoThat’s because of the Cantillon Effect, a 271-year-old economic observation about how money and pricing decisions move through the marketplace. Raymond B. Jewell. Ph.D. | November 4, 2026 You’ve probably noticed that dinner costs more than…
2 Words From Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Are Echoing Through Wall Street and Unnerving InvestorsThe Motley Fool · 8 days agoDespite Warsh noting that he was "encouraged by the progress we've made in a short period of time" since the FOMC's quarter-point rate hike on Sept. 16, two words from the head of the central bank keep echoing through Wall Street and…
New York Times, Federal Reserve, Harvard, Columbia Employees Pour Campaign Cash Into Hard-Left Candidates@FreeBeacon · 6 days agoEmployees of the New York Times, the Federal Reserve, Harvard, and Columbia have poured thousands of dollars in campaign cash into Democratic political campaigns—including some of the most extreme far-left candidates—a Washington Free…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onPresident of the United States, Chair of the Federal Reserve

Trading closesJan 1, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$3.5K (33,689 contracts)

Today$2

At stake$2.5K

In the news11 headlines today, 99 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions