Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin? (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Jan 29, 2027 · $5.8K traded · $5.6K at stake · prices read 19 min ago

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The odds

4.56median
-20015.0
Median 4.56Middle half 3.62 – 5.50

How the odds have moved

Median: 6.25 on Oct 20, 4.56 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Paxton by 3+ 1% 2¢ $50.00 1.1K
Paxton by 0-3 1% 2¢ $50.00 2.5K
Abbott by 0-3 7% 28¢ $3.57 2.3K
Abbott by 3-6 80% 4¢ $1.25 5.5K
Abbott by 6-9 3% 28¢ $3.57 4.8K
Abbott by 9-12 3% ▲ 3 8¢ $12.50 2.2K
Abbott by 12+ 6% 28¢ $3.57 1.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Texas, Abbott, Paxton

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  • Paxton calls on Texans to pray, warns 'if we lose Texas, we lose America'Fox News · 10 days agoRepublican Senate candidate Ken Paxton urges supporters at a Houston rally to pray for Texas and turn out the vote, warning that the election will determine the future of both the state and the nation ... Paxton calls on Texans to pray…
  • WATCH LIVE: Ken Paxton holds campaign event in TexasFox News · 10 days agoRepublican Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton is rallying voters with less than a week to go before Election Day. WATCH LIVE: Ken Paxton holds campaign event in Texas Republican Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton is rallying voters with less…
  • Texas Early Voting Nears 6M in Tight Talarico-Paxton Senate RaceNewsweek · 10 days agoOct 30, 2026 at 01:50 PM EDT Oct 30, 2026 at 01:51 PM EDT More than 6.3 million Texans had voted early heading into Friday, the last day of early voting, in a Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton that polls…
  • James Talarico leading Ken Paxton in Texas, new poll showsCBS News · 11 days agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Talarico leading…
  • WATCH LIVE: Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton rallies Texas voters in final push before Election DayFox News · 10 days agoRepublican Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton is rallying voters with three days until Election Day. WATCH LIVE: Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton rallies Texas voters in final push before Election Day Republican Texas Senate candidate…
  • WATCH LIVE: Ken Paxton holds 'Come and Take It' bus tour stop in Pearland, TexasFox News · 10 days agoTexas Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton rallies supporters during a "Come and Take It" campaign tour stop in Pearland, Texas, ahead of the midterm election. WATCH LIVE: Ken Paxton holds 'Come and Take It' bus tour stop in…
  • WATCH LIVE: Ken Paxton holds 'Come and Take It' rally in Beaumont, TexasFox News · 11 days agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks to voters during a campaign stop in Beaumont. The Republican Senate nominee rallies grassroots support and outlines conservative policy priorities ahead of Texas' high-stakes U.S. Senate election…
  • Can Greg Abbott’s Political Machine Save Ken Paxton?Political Wire · 10 days agoPolitico: "The country’s longest-serving governor is trying to notch another victory for the GOP — and himself." Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193 Politico: “The country’s longest-serving governor is trying to notch another victory…
  • CNN Poll: Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in Texas Senate racecnn.com · 12 days agoA new CNN poll shows Democrat James Talarico with a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton with just five days to go before election day. CNN Poll: Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race A new CNN poll shows Democrat…
  • Texas GOP Gov. Abbott faces his toughest challenger yetcnn.com · 12 days agoTexas Republican Governor Greg Abbott is facing his toughest challenger yet as he seeks a fourth term. CNN's Ed Lavandera has the details. Texas GOP Gov. Abbott faces his toughest challenger yet Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott is…
  • At Ken Paxton rally, impeachment had a silver liningThe Washington Post · 9 days agoFORT WORTH, Texas — Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s 2023 impeachment on bribery and corruption charges has been a major liability during his U.S. Senate race this year. But one lawmaker extolled a supposed bright side. Speaking at a…
  • ¿Texas Azul? Empate Paxton-Talarico Alarma a TrumpFox News · 12 days agoDonald Trump regresa a Texas en el cierre de campaña ante un empate de 49%-49% entre Ken Paxton y James Talarico que amenaza la mayoría republicana. ¿Texas Azul? Empate Paxton-Talarico Alarma a Trump Donald Trump regresa a Texas en el…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions