Texas Senate: Exact outcome (Before Jan 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closed Tue 11:11 PM ET · $53.1K today · $269K traded · $159K at stake

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Settled Talarico defeats PaxtonA day before, traders gave it 73%.

The last odds before it closed

99%Talarico defeats Paxton
  • ✓ Talarico defeats Paxton99%▲ 25
  • Paxton defeats Talarico1%▼ 26

How the odds have moved

Talarico defeats Paxton: 61% on Oct 20, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 3, 10 PM ETTalarico defeats Paxton: 73% → 99%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Last odds Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Talarico defeats Paxton 99% 264.3K
✗ Paxton defeats Talarico 1% 640.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Texas Senate, Exact

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  • Analyzing Alaska, Texas Senate racesCBS News · 6 days agoAlaska's Senate race garnered attention with Democrat Mary Peltola and two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. In typically red Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces off against Democrat James Talarico. CBS News' Fin Gómez has more. Analyzing…
  • Former Rep. Kevin Brady on midterms, Texas Senate raceCNBC · 6 days agoCNBC Former Rep. Kevin Brady on midterms, Texas Senate race
  • Texas Senate candidates hold their final rallies ahead of Election DayCBS News · 7 days agoCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Texas Senate candidates…
  • Texas Senate race poll shows James Talarico leading Ken PaxtonFox Business · 7 days agoDemocrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by seven points in a New York Times/Siena poll for the Texas Senate race. Mike Tobin reports on the historic spending in this election, which has seen over half a billion dollars poured…
  • Texas Senate Race Tests Nearly 40 Years of Republican ControlCNN · 7 days agoCNN Texas Senate Race Tests Nearly 40 Years of Republican Control CNN's Ed Lavandera breaks down the closely watched Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton.
  • Ken Paxton issues dire warning as Texas Senate race goes down to the wireFox News · 7 days agoFox News Ken Paxton issues dire warning as Texas Senate race goes down to the wire The Texas attorney general and U.S. Senate candidate urged Republicans to vote, warning that Democrats could threaten the state’s conservative stronghold in…
  • Polling remains tight in Texas Senate, governor races ahead of Election DayCBS News · 8 days agoThe marquis statewide race has proven to be the showdown for U.S. Senate between Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, running for a fourth term, is facing his most competitive general election…
  • Ken Paxton warns Texas Senate race comes down to voter turnoutFox News · 8 days agoTexas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton tells 'The Big Weekend Show' co-hosts how important it is for every Republican in Texas to go out and vote this election. Ken Paxton warns Texas Senate race comes down to voter turnout Texas…
  • Texas Senate race up for grabs for first time in decadesFox News · 8 days agoFox News senior correspondent Alicia Acuna reports on the contentious Senate race in Texas on 'Fox News Sunday.' ... Texas Senate race up for grabs for first time in decades Fox News senior correspondent Alicia Acuna reports on the…
  • Election 2026 Texas SenatePost Register · 6 days agoPost Register - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) People talk at an election night event before Republican Senate candidate Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Dallas…
  • The issue that could tip the scales in the Texas Senate raceCBS News · 8 days agoCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday 8am
  • Eye on Politics: One last look at the 2026 Texas Senate raceCBS News · 9 days agoCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday…

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Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None
  • None98%
  • AK2%
  • All 7<1%▼ 3
125 more
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
  • AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
  • AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
  • IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
  • IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
  • KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer
  • Chuck Schumer88%▼ 2
  • Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 2
  • Brian Schatz1%▼ 1
10 more
  • Chris Murphy1%
  • Mark Warner<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Raphael Warnock<1%
  • Amy Klobuchar<1%
  • Patty Murray<1%
  • Tammy Baldwin<1%
  • Jon Ossoff<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Jacky Rosen<1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2028 · $27K today
Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer
  • Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
  • Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
  • Brian Schatz2%▼ 1
8 more
  • John Thune<1%
  • John Barrasso<1%
  • Steve Daines<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Amy Klobuchar<1%
  • Patty Murray<1%
  • Cory Booker<1%
  • Mark Kelly<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions