Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair? (Before Jan 2030)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31, 2030 · $1.4K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 65 min ago

The odds

Jul 28, 2030even chance by

Before Jan 1, 20272%
Before Jan 1, 20285%
Before Jan 1, 20297%
Before Jan 1, 203011%
Before Jan 1, 203180%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 2% on Oct 20, 2% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	2.4K
Before Jan 1, 2028	5%		3¢	6¢	$16.67	3.1K
Before Jan 1, 2029	7%		3¢	10¢	$10.00	96.00
Before Jan 1, 2030	11%		7¢	15¢	$6.67	1.3K
Before Jan 1, 2031	80%	▲ 1	76¢	83¢	$1.20	1.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Fed chair, Federal Reserve chair, Powell

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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Just Issued a 6-Word Warning That Could Spell Disaster for AI Stocks24/7 Wall St. · 2 days agoTwo AI stocks lost nearly half their value in a month while Microsoft barely moved. The split has less to do with chips than with one question every data center builder now has to answer, and rising rates are forcing… On October 28, Fed…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh set to face new headaches with Democrats in control: ‘Got no support’New York Post · 5 days agoDemocrats’ sweeping midterm victory, and particularly their coming control of the US Senate, strengthen the Federal Reserve against President Trump’s efforts to meddle with it, with the Senate’s control over appointments a major guardrail…
Swearing-in ceremony for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin WarshThe Lufkin Daily News · 5 days agoThe Lufkin Daily News U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas attends a swearing-in ceremony for a new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 22, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein - Two…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Is Planning to Break 45 Years of Precedent With a Stunning Change to Monetary Policy -- It Could Rattle Wall Street for Years to ComeThe Motley Fool · 4 days agoWarsh has been advocating for reform at the Federal Reserve for years now. When Kevin Warsh became the new chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors earlier this year, he made it clear he wanted to reform the agency, which he has…
Attention Kevin Warsh, stop raising rates.citizenfreepress.com · 3 days agoThe Greatest News Site On The Internet. Home of CFP Nation. Attention Kevin Warsh, stop raising rates. Posted by Kane on November 6, 2026 10:55 am
Kevin Warsh Says AI Investment Is Not Immune to 4% RatesBitcoin Foundation · 5 days agoKevin Warsh AI stock market comments link AI investment to borrowing costs after the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4%, challenging rate-proof claims. On Oct. 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh tied the cost of borrowing straight to the AI…
New Zealand's central bank just made a grave error—Fed chair Kevin Warsh should learn from itmint · 6 days agoThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand, closely watched because of its status as a pioneer of inflation targeting, has blundered. However, the mistake need not be fatal and might even teach the world a lesson. By forgoing an interest-rate hike…
JPMorgan Says Kevin Warsh May Need To Court Congress To Keep His Fed JobThe WealthAdvisor · 4 days agoFederal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has until 2030 before his current term expires, but JPMorgan's Michael Feroli thinks this week's midterm elections have already complicated his chances of getting another one. With Democrats poised to…
Fed chair’s new claim to fame: His racehorse Deterministic won a $2 million raceThe Washington Post · 7 days agoThe Washington Post Deterministic, a 5-year-old horse that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh owns a piece of, won the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky, on Saturday. Wall Street spends a lot of time betting on what…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Just Drove a Dagger Through Wall Street's AI-Driven Rally With 6 Blunt WordsThe Motley Fool · 7 days agoIf you think artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are immune to rising interest rates, you’ll be sorely mistaken. For the better part of the last four years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.41%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.51%), and Nasdaq…
Oil could fall to $80-$85 after war, while Kevin Warsh believes in pixies, UBS economist saysThe National · 4 days agoIt has been a dramatic start to the week. Oil fell by more than 7 per cent on Monday after the presidents of the US and Iran signalled they were open to a diplomatic solution, and on Tuesday the Democrats won control of both the House of…
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's New Plan Could Change How Often US Borrowers See Interest Rate Relief@IBTimesUK · 6 days agoThe central bank will continue holding eight meetings annually, but one meeting in 2027 and two in 2028 are expected to focus exclusively on monetary policy strategy, without scheduled interest rate votes. This would reduce the number of…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onKevin Warsh, Federal Reserve

Trading closesDec 31, 2030 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.4K (8,197 contracts)

This week$7

At stake$1.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Kevin Warsh leaves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions