Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced? (Before Apr 1, 2027)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Mar 31, 2027 · $100 traded · $99 at stake · prices read 34 min ago

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The odds

Feb 14, 2027even chance by
  • Before Dec 1, 202628%
  • Before Jan 1, 202740%
  • Before Apr 1, 202761%

How the odds have moved

Before Dec 1, 2026: 31% on Oct 19, 28% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Dec 1, 2026 28% 24¢ 32¢ $3.13 60.00
Before Jan 1, 2027 40% 36¢ 44¢ $2.27 207
Before Apr 1, 2027 61% 56¢ 65¢ $1.54

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Yosemite, Kingsbarn

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  • Doomed Dome Fire chopper dropped water bucket right before fatal Yosemite dive: fedsCalifornia Post · 12 days agoChilling new details capture the final moments of a firefighting helicopter before it plunged into the trees at Yosemite National Park, killing two pilots. The horrifying Sept. 20 crash claimed the lives of Greg King, 56, of Alaska, and…
  • The State Parks That Feel Like YosemiteWorldAtlas · 12 days agoThese state parks offer Yosemite-like scenery, from towering granite formations and forested valleys to dramatic waterfalls and cliffs. It is no secret that Yosemite National Park draws millions of visitors to its glacially carved valleys…
  • Best Time to Visit Yosemite National ParkRVshare · 14 days agoBelow, let’s look into the best times to visit Yosemite — as well as tips and tricks for making a memorable RV trip to this one-of-a-kind part of California. As mentioned above, each season in Yosemite has its own beauty, and depending on…
  • Yosemite National Park in picturesDaily News · 17 days agoYosemite National Park is known for its granite cliffs, waterfalls, giant sequoias, and alpine scenery. Yosemite Valley is among its best-known landscapes, with landmarks such as Half Dome, El Capitan, and Yosemite Falls. The views vary…
  • Yosemite’s green meadows are hiding a 150-year-old problemEarth.com · 17 days agoYosemite's Tuolumne Meadows are losing soil carbon more than a century after heavy sheep grazing, and restoring the damaged ecosystem could take decades. Tuolumne Meadows turns green every June, and many of the 4 million people who visit…
  • Mariposa Crews Push to Reopen Yosemite's 21-Mile River Trail This FallHoodline · 17 days agoFor now, the exact timeline for when the South Fork Merced River Trail will be fully passable from end to end has not been independently confirmed. What is clear is that the restoration remains active, with volunteers and professional…
  • Yosemite Bear-Vehicle Crashes at Highest Level in Decade-PlusNewser · 18 days agoIf you spent three days in Yosemite this month, odds are a car slammed into a bear while you were there. Since Oct. 1, seven black bears have been hit by vehicles inside the park... Yosemite Bear-Vehicle Crashes at Highest Level in…
  • Hydrology of Yosemite National ParkUSGS · 18 days agoHydrology is the study of water and its interaction with the landscape. Water has shaped the dramatic formations of Yosemite for millions of years and can be seen ... Official websites use .gov Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Hydrology of…
  • Bear collisions are at a 10-year high in Yosemite National ParkSFGATE · 18 days agoFILE: There has been an increase in bears being hit by vehicles in California’s Yosemite National Park in 2026. If you visited Yosemite National Park this month, and stayed for at least three days, it is likely that a bear got hit by a…
  • Winter weather advisory affecting Yosemite Wednesday and ThursdayThe Mercury News · 18 days agoYosemite was placed under an updated winter weather advisory by the National Weather Service on Thursday at 10:28 a.m. The advisory is in effect until 5 p.m. Yosemite was placed under an updated winter weather advisory by the National…
  • Snow from Yosemite’s recent storm is melting quickly. But winter is on its wayFresno Bee · 18 days agoDespite a layer of snowfall that hit Yosemite over the last few days, and the possibility of a bit more to come through the weekend, winter hasn’t fully revealed itself in the national park yet. ”We are trending there,” according to Sean…
  • POLITICO Pro: Yosemite land swap could face legal roadblocks@POLITICOPro · 19 days agoA private developer wants to build a short road into Yosemite, but some experts say plans for a land exchange with the National Park Service could run afoul of a 1978 law.

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

35%Pete Hegseth
  • Pete Hegseth35%▼ 8
  • Will Scharf30%▼ 11
  • Amy Gleason28%▼ 5
37 more
  • Stanley Woodward28%▼ 6
  • Trent McCotter28%▼ 10
  • Howard Lutnick26%▲ 6
  • Christopher Landau25%
  • Kash Patel22%▼ 2
  • Doug Collins21%▲ 1
  • Brad Cooper20%▼ 1
  • Dan Caine19%▼ 4
  • Kevin Hassett19%▲ 1
  • Linda McMahon18%▼ 2
  • Steven Cheung18%▼ 13
  • Peter Navarro17%▼ 2
  • Sergio Gor17%▼ 8
  • Brooke Rollins15%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio14%▼ 2
  • Chris Wright14%
  • Doug Burgum14%
  • John Ratcliffe14%▼ 2
  • Jamieson Greer13%▲ 1
  • Bill Pulte13%▼ 1
  • Scott Turner13%▲ 1
  • Kelly Loeffler13%▼ 6
  • Joe Gebbia13%▲ 2
  • Mehmet Oz12%▼ 2
  • Steve Witkoff12%▼ 6
  • Tom Homan11%▲ 1
  • Todd Blanche11%▼ 5
  • Mike Huckabee10%▼ 1
  • Rodney Scott10%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz10%▼ 8
  • Sean Duffy10%▼ 1
  • Russell Vought8%
  • Scott Bessent8%
  • Lee Zeldin8%
  • Tilman Fertitta7%
  • Brendan Carr5%▼ 1

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

99%Susie Wiles
  • Susie Wiles99%▲ 75
  • None before 2027<1%▼ 17
  • J.D. Vance<1%▼ 1
18 more
  • Marco Rubio<1%▼ 17
  • Scott Bessent<1%▼ 2
  • Pete Hegseth<1%▼ 33
  • Doug Burgum<1%▼ 2
  • Brooke Rollins<1%▼ 1
  • Howard Lutnick<1%▼ 2
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%▼ 3
  • Scott Turner<1%
  • Sean Duffy<1%
  • Chris Wright<1%▼ 1
  • Linda McMahon<1%
  • Doug Collins<1%
  • Lee Zeldin<1%▼ 1
  • Russell T. Vought<1%
  • John Ratcliffe<1%
  • Jamieson Greer<1%▼ 1
  • Mike Waltz<1%▼ 2
  • Kelly Loeffler<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions