Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 7, 2029 · $2 today · $1.1K traded · $697 at stake · prices read 79 min ago

The odds

88%Republican party

Republican party88%
Democratic party10%

How the odds have moved

Republican party: 93% on Oct 19, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Republican party	88%		85¢	91¢	$1.10	1.1K
Democratic party	10%		6¢	14¢	$7.14	489

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Arkansas Senate

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Arkansas Senate elect Josh Bryant to be president pro tempore for the 96th General Assembly@arkansasonline · 4 days agoThe Arkansas Senate on Thursday night selected state Sen. Josh Bryant, R-Rogers, to be the Senate president pro tempore for the 96th General Assembly from 2027-2029. Arkansas Senate elect Josh Bryant to be president pro tempore for the…
Bryant elected to lead Arkansas Senate in vote that highlights deep dividesKUAR · 3 days agoRepublican Sen. Joshua Bryant was elected Thursday as the Arkansas Senate’s next leader following three hours of deadlocked voting that indicated divisions facing the majority-GOP chamber next year. The vote for Senate president pro…
District 32 lawmaker Joshua Bryant elected Arkansas Senate president pro temporeKATV · 4 days agoLITTLE ROCK, Ark. (KATV) — Republican state senator Joshua Bryant, of Rodgers, will be the next President Pro Tempore of the Arkansas State Senate. Bryant represents Senate District 32, covering parts of Benton and Washington counties. He…
Arkansas Senate and Governor’s races calledParagould Daily Press · 6 days agoThe Associated Press has called the U.S. Senate race in Arkansas, projecting Republican Tom Cotton as winning reelection. 1 day for $1.50 Paragould Daily Press All-Access Sorry, no promotional deals were found matching that code…
Republican Tom Cotton Wins Third Term in Arkansas Senate RaceBreitbart · 6 days agoSen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) secured another six-year term in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, defeating Democrat Hallie Shoffner in Arkansas. The post Republican Tom Cotton Wins Third Term in Arkansas Senate Race appeared first on Breitbart. Sen…
Allison Grigsby Sweatman has been elected to the Arkansas SenateArkansas Times · 6 days agoFor the first time in a long time, Senate District 13 has gone blue. Democrat Allison Grigsby Sweatman has defeated Rep. Brandon Achor in the race to replace outgoing Sen. Jane English. Pulaski County election officials report Sweatman…
Cotton wins reelection in Arkansas Senate raceOne America News Network · 6 days agoOAN Staff Sophia Flores 9:27 PM – Tuesday, November 3, 2026 Tom Cotton has won re-election against Hallie Shoffner in the race to become the Senator of Arkansas. Cotton, who has represented Arkansas in the Senate since 2015, received an…
Democrat Sweatman defeated state Rep. Achor; Republicans secure half of contested Arkansas Senate seats@arkansasonline · 6 days agoNorth Little Rock Democrat Allison Sweatman defeated state Rep. Brandon Achor, a Republican from Maumelle, in a state Senate race in Tuesday’s election. Sweatman beat Achor, even though Achor reported spending more than nine times than she…
Arkansas 2026 election resultsCNN · 7 days agoCNN Arkansas 2026 election results Live results: Arkansas Senate Follow live results in the Arkansas Senate race, county by county, as votes are counted on election night. Senate results by county Live results: Arkansas Governor Follow…
How Arkansas' counties voted in the governor's raceKHBS · 3 days agoRepublican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders has been reelected by Arkansans. (Video above: Sanders victory speech from Nov. 3) Sanders had the highest vote margin in Cleburne County, where she won 76.8% of the vote compared to challenger Fred…
Northeast Arkansas News for Thursday, 11/05/2026kjnbtv.com · 4 days ago| Live Stream | kjnbtv.com kjnbtv.com The latest news and information from your Northeast Arkansas news station. - A-State Collegiate Cattlemen hosting chili and bingo event in Jonesboro - Artsy Unique Boutique hosting first holiday craft…
Editorial CartoonParagould Daily Press · 5 days agoParagould Daily Press Arkansas Senate and Governorâs races called Rutledge reelected Lt. Governor Projected House winners announced

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Elections › Senate

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

98%None

None98%
AK2%
All 7<1%▼ 3

125 more

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%▼ 2
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%▼ 1
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%▼ 3
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate winner? (2026)

98%Democratic party

Democratic party98%▲ 1
Republican party2%▼ 1

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Democratic Leader? (2028)

88%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer88%▼ 2
Chris Van Hollen10%▲ 2
Brian Schatz1%▼ 1

10 more

Chris Murphy1%
Mark Warner<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Raphael Warnock<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Tammy Baldwin<1%
Jon Ossoff<1%
Ruben Gallego<1%
Jacky Rosen<1%

Elections › Senate

Next Senate Majority Leader?

89%Chuck Schumer

Chuck Schumer89%▼ 4
Chris Van Hollen9%▲ 4
Brian Schatz2%▼ 1

8 more

John Thune<1%
John Barrasso<1%
Steve Daines<1%
Tom Cotton<1%
Amy Klobuchar<1%
Patty Murray<1%
Cory Booker<1%
Mark Kelly<1%

Elections › Senate

Alaska Senate Election Winner

99%Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola99%
Sen. Dan Sullivan1%▼ 1
Ann Diener<1%

4 more

Dustin Darden<1%
Richard Grayson<1%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1%
David Leslie<1%

Elections › Senate

Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)

99%Scott Colom

Scott Colom99%
Cindy Hyde-Smith2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Congress

Trading closesNov 7, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.1K (1,638 contracts)

Today$2

This week$86

At stake$697

In the news4 headlines today, 5 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Progressives Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions